Breaking down all the SEC Championship tiebreaker scenarios
Without divisions anymore to help determine who goes to the SEC Championship game we are potentially looking at a five-way tie for second place and should Texas lose to Kentucky we could even be looking at a six-way tie.
Don’t worry, the good folks in Birmingham have a plan and have published 22 pages of tiebreaking contingencies. If you want to read them for yourself (https://www.secsports.com/fbtiebreaker) If you don’t have the time to read 22 pages of tiebreaker rules, I’ve done it for you.
Two-team tie for first place
According to the SEC here is how a two-way tie for first place will work:
“If a tiebreaker step produces standings with two teams tied for first place in the Conference, they are both selected for the championship game. To decide the seeding of the two teams, they will progress through the Two-Team tiebreaker procedures, which will determine home/away designation for the Conference Championship Game”
Meaning if we have two teams, they will follow through this process: Head-head competition, record v. Common conference opponents, record among highest-ranked conference opponents, cumulative conference winning percentage, scoring margin against all conference opponents, and a random draw.
This is probably the least likely scenario because it will depend on Kentucky upsetting Texas and Texas then beating Texas A&M while multiple teams in the mix take conference losses. Possible, just not likely.
Two-team tie for second place
Per the SEC a two-way tie for second place will proceed the same way as above with whoever comes out on top of that process earning the right to be the road team in the 2024 SEC Championship. Once again this possibility is unlikely, but is the option that best serves the Georgia Bulldogs. Georgia has already completed their conference slate and in this, they would go through the tiebreaking process against the loser of Texas and Texas A&M provided the Longhorns don’t lose to Kentucky.
Three-team or more tie for first place
This is where things start to get hairy. Per the SEC the tied teams will then roll through the tiebreakers to determine a number one. Should two teams be on the same footing after the tiebreakers, those two teams will go to the conference championship. If a clear number one is selected, then the other teams will go back through the tiebreaking process to determine the second-place team.
Three-team or more tie for second place
This process will be the same as a tie for first place just the same as for a tie for first place. Nothing special.
How this process will work
Most of what the SEC has in the rulebooks can largely be thrown out this year thanks to the chaos of the 2024 season. Here are the parts of each tiebreaker that will apply and an explanation for why they don’t.
Tiebreaker A: Head-to-Head Competition.
In the most likely scenarios for the end of the year, this tiebreaker will be thrown out. Provided the teams tied have played each other, it would take a straight two-way tie for this to apply. If that isn’t the case, then you would need to talk about record among all tied teams. If all of those teams haven’t played each other we pass on to stage two.
Tiebreaker B: Record against common conference opponents
Breaking down who would take this is complicated. You would need to calculate all shared conference opponents between these teams and their record against them. If you end up with a clear-cut number one and two from this process they represent the conference. If there is a clear number one, then the remaining teams restart the tiebreaker process to determine who number two is.
Tiebreaker C: Record against highest best-placed conference opponents
How did you play among the top teams in the conference is what we are asking here. Again, if clear numbers one and two emerge, then they will play. If we get a number one but not a number two, then the process will begin again to determine the number two team.
Tiebreaker D: Conference winning percentage by all conference opponents of tied teams
How did your conference opponents play this season? This will be a math-heavy answer and will require each team to look through what their opponents have done. In other words, whoever you played this season you are rooting for the old enemies to win.
Tiebreaker E: Capped relative scoring margin against all conference opponents.
Scoring margin is my personal favorite tiebreaker, and if it were up to me, this would be your third tiebreaker. Not only who have you played, but how good of a win was it. This will break down your margin against all-conference opponents and will follow the process of clear one and two or if there is a clear number one but no two start it all over again.
Tiebreaker F: Random Draw.
I love this potential for chaos. If we reach a point where two teams are indistinguishable and tied for first all of the athletic directors will join a call and the commissioner will draw a name. The team that is drawn will be the away team, and the undrawn team will be the home team.
If there is a two-way tie for second, the drawn team will serve as the representative and be the away team. If there is a multi-way tie then the drawn team will similarly represent as the away team.
It’s unlikely the SEC Championship will come down to who is selected and if it is prepare for some angry fan bases if their team isn’t selected.
With two weeks left and plenty of football to play, all of these tiebreakers are up in the air and will depend on each team’s ability to win out to play their way in. In a year where College Football has seen more chaos than it has in decades, it will be interesting to see who stands out. But either way, the expanded playoffs and a division-less SEC are now anyone’s to win.