Alabama football fans will be SMU Mustangs fans on Saturday. In the ACC Championship Game, the Crimson Tide needs an SMU win over Clemson to make the Playoff field. If Clemson wins, the less-deserving Tigers will get an auto-bid and SMU will take an at-large slot that otherwise should go to Alabama.
Does the Crimson Tide deserve to be in the Playoff field, even if Clemson wins? Yes, based on Alabama Football having wins over three ranked teams; if the Tigers beat SMU, Clemson will only have one. There is a valid counter-opinion that Alabama's embarrassing losses to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma should factor into the Playoff Selection Committee's final rankings.
Based on Strength of Schedule (SOS) a 10-3 Clemson team would not be better than the 9-3 Crimson Tide. Based on the ESPN FPI, the Alabama Crimson Tide finished the regular season with the No. 17 SOS. Clemson has an SOS of No. 53. The Tigers SOS will improve after playing SMU, but one game will not produce a big boost. For added perspective, in the FPI team rankings, 10 SEC teams are ranked higher than Clemson. One of them is five-loss Florida. Playing in the ACC does not come close to matching the challenge of playing against SEC competition.
Tuesday night's rankings should indicate to what extent the Selection Committee considers SOS. So far, their words have not matched their actions. Unfortunately, the auto-bid structure is the culprit that could bump Alabama from the Playoff field. Clemson does not have to be one of the 12 most-deserving Playoff teams. It just has to win the ACC.
Can Alabama Football count on SMU?
It should not matter but it is discomforting for some Alabama fans to root for SMU Head Coach, Rhett Lashlee. Gus Malzahn coached Lashlee in high school. Lashlee followed Malzahn into coaching and spent five seasons coaching under Malzahn at Auburn. Like all of Malzahn's OCs, Lashlee was not given much rein to run the Auburn offense. Since leaving Malzahn, Lashlee has become known as one of college football's best offensive coaches.
The Mustangs are 11-1, but SMU's SOS is an unimpressive No. 75. FanDuel says SMU is only a 2.5-point favorite over Clemson. ESPN's Analytics gives SMU a 53.7% probability of winning the ACC Championship Game.
Clemson also has the advantage of the game being in Charlotte. Clemson fans will outnumber SMU fans by a large number.