Alabama football's path to the College Football Playoff is clear: win the remaining four regular season games, and the Crimson Tide is comfortably a playoff team. A few surprising results this weekend has some experts believing Alabama will be in the first projected playoff field come Tuesday night.
What isn't as black-and-white is Alabama's path to defending its SEC Championship. Currently, the Crimson Tide is 3-2 in league play, which is tied with Vanderbilt and Ole Miss for sixth place.
With Texas A&M's loss to South Carolina, no undefeated teams are left in conference play. There are five teams with one loss each: Texas, Georgia, Texas A&M, LSU, and Tennessee. Of those five, Alabama has already played Georgia and Tennessee, beating the Bulldogs and falling short against the Volunteers. Alabama faces off against LSU next week in Baton Rouge.
Let's take a look at some realistic results that could land the Crimson Tide in Atlanta for the SEC Championship:
Week 11:
Obviously, it all starts with Alabama beating LSU. Beyond that, Lane Kiffin finally winning the big one at Ole Miss and leading the Rebels to a win over Georgia would give the Bulldogs it second conference loss, tying them with Alabama. Alabama has the tiebreaker between those two.
South Carolina going on the road and beating Vanderbilt to get the 'Dores out of the way would be helpful, too, as strange as that it is to type.
Week 12:
Coming off the road loss to Ole Miss, Georgia bounces back and beats Tennessee, handing the Volunteers their second SEC loss. With two weeks to go, that would leave Texas and Texas A&M as the only one loss SEC teams left.
Week 13:
Alabama beats Oklahoma on the road to stay afloat. Ole Miss is removed from tiebreaker scenarios with a road loss to Florida in the Swamp.
Week 14:
Alabama wins the Iron Bowl to finish 6-2 in conference play. Texas and Texas A&M enter with one loss apiece in the SEC, and the Longhorns knock off the Aggies in College Station. Vanderbilt upsets Tennessee in Nashville, knocking the Volunteers down with their third conference loss.
That would leave Texas alone in first place, sending the Longhorns to Atlanta for the SEC Championship in their first season in the conference. It would leave a four-way tie for second place, with Alabama, Georgia, Texas A&M, and LSU all 6-2. So who gets in?
The first tie-breaker is head-to-head competition among the tied teams. Alabama would be 2-0, having beaten both Georgia and LSU. Texas A&M would be 1-0, having beaten LSU. That might be enough to put Alabama in Atlanta, but if they went to the second tiebreaker between the Tide and Aggies, it's record against common conference opponents.
Weirdly enough, Alabama and Texas A&M only will have played four of the same teams. Both would have beaten Auburn, LSU, and Missouri. The fourth game swings it in Alabama's favor, with the Crimson Tide edging out South Carolina and the Aggies falling to the Gamecocks. So after all the angst from Alabama's two-point win over South Carolina, that victory might be what puts Alabama over the top and into Atlanta for the title game.
While I believe the above scenario is realistic, it might not be in Alabama's best interest to play for the SEC Championship. According to ESPN's Playoff Predictor, Alabama would still have a 77% of making the playoff by losing in the SEC Championship, though as a likely No. 9 seed.
By not making it, Alabama has a 96% chance of making the playoff, and would have a 58% of hosting a first round game.