Momentum matters in college football. Mostly, it matters during games. The Alabama Crimson Tide is coming off a game in which it never had any momentum. Next up is a playoff road game in a stadium filled with fever-pitch fans, confident that their team can beat Alabama for the second time this season.
The game's opening spread made Alabama a slight favorite. Based on message board opinions, Oklahoma should be a clear favorite. Sooners fans are sure that Oklahoma is better than Alabama. Alabama Crimson Tide fans are confident about next to nothing.
After Alabama's Iron Bowl win, Crimson Tide fans praised Ty Simpson for willing the Tide offense to a victory. Simpson has been inconsistent for over a month, but Alabama fans have mostly expected him to prevail in big games. Much of that confidence has dissipated.
Alabama fans plead for offensive scheme changes and play-calling adjustments, but the Crimson Tide's offensive success is and will be determined by Simpson's performance. Centering blame on Simpson for Alabama's offensive weaknesses is unfair. It does appear he has lost confidence and composure. He is missing reads and making bad throws, but problems surround him. The Tide's offensive line, running backs, receivers, and Ryan Grubb share blame for Alabama's offensive woes.
Alabama Crimson Tide in Norman, OK
More of the same will mean a sad night in Norman, OK. The Sooners are better at pressuring quarterbacks than Georgia. Brent Venables' group is one of college football's best at getting pressure without blitzing. When Venables does bring heat, it more often succeeds rather than making his defense vulnerable.
Oklahoma and Texas A&M lead college football in average sacks per game, at 3.42. A solid Alabama defense is No. 77 at 1.92. The Sooners are No. 1 alone in tackles for a loss, at 9.58 per game. The Crimson Tide is ranked No. 54, at 5.69.
Against Oklahoma, with 406 yards of total offense, Alabama did not lose to the Sooners because it was unable to move the ball. The Crimson Tide lost due to turnovers and poor special teams play. Take away those miscues, and a two-point loss might have been a two-score win. Is that reason for optimism on Dec. 19?
A cloudy answer is maybe, maybe not. Alabama's offense has been awful in its last two games. Against Auburn and Georgia, 3.8 yards per play was the Tide's average. For comparison, in SEC conference play, South Carolina and Auburn are last in the SEC at 4.8 yards.
It should be no surprise why Oklahoma fans are so optimistic.
Note: Data provided by cfbstats.com and Sports Reference