Labaron Philon was right and wrong when he said Alabama and Texas Tech are alike. Both the Crimson Tide and the Red Raiders love to shoot the three-ball. The two teams are significantly different in pace of play.
Analyzing the Red Raiders is complicated because of the season-ending injury to JT Toppin. As Nate Oats said after the Hofstra win, Alabama will only look at the Red Raiders post-Toppin. Texas Tech lost its leading scorer with six minutes left in a game against Arizona State on Feb. 17. They are 4-3 since losing Toppin, with the three losses coming in their last four games.
In the six games since the Toppin injury and before their Big Dance win over Akron, the Red Raiders have averaged 71.3 points per game. That is not an output for a shootout win over Alabama. The Red Raiders will hope to counter with a tempo that could disrupt the Crimson Tide's normal offensive rhythm.
According to Ken Pomeroy's model, Alabama is No. 4 nationally in adjusted tempo. Texas Tech is No. 252. Slow Alabama enough, and the Red Raiders can win for two reasons. They are a strong defensive team and make threes better than the Crimson Tide.
Red Raiders make threes better than the Crimson Tide
For the season, Texas Tech has made threes at 39.7%, No. 4 among all Division One teams. On the season, Alabama's three-point accuracy is No. 83 at 35.7%. Statistically, the Red Raiders are outstanding at three-point defense, comparable to Tennessee in denying opponents' shots from outside the arc. These stats are why Texas Tech opened as a slight favorite in betting markets.
The Red Raiders will not outmatch the Crimson Tide on the boards. Alabama has more size, with only one Texas Tech regular taller than 6'6". Luke Bamgboye is 6'10", but only weighs 200 lbs. The Red Raiders do have two powerful 6'6" players, both around 225 lbs. At the worst for Alabama, team rebounds should be about equal. An Akron team lacking size got 11 offensive rebounds against the Red Raiders.
Jaylen Petty was the high scorer for Texas Tech in the win over Akron, with 24 points. The Red Raiders best offensive threat is guard Christian Anderson. As a third-team All-American, Anderson can be fairly compared to Labaron Philon.
Two credible computer models give the game a one-point winner, one by Texas Tech and one by the Crimson Tide. If Alabama can gain a decided tempo advantage, a Crimson Tide win by three to five points is possible. The Red Raiders cannot win a shootout.
Note: Team and player stats provided by ESPN and Sports Reference