Will he stay or will he go?
Alabama basketball's 2026-27 outlook is in the hands of Amari Allen as he goes through the NBA Combine this week in Chicago.
While Nate Oats has said that he and Preston Murphy have a Plan B if Allen stays in the draft and/or Aden Holloway isn't able to return, there's no question that Alabama will be better next season with Allen rather than without him.
But his return his far from guaranteed.
Allen is searching for a first-round guarantee to keep him in the draft, and weighing whether a return to Alabama, where he will be given a lot more on-ball responsibility as a sophomore, is worth it.
Allen has largely been viewed as a first-round pick, but how he is viewed by media draft experts and how he is viewed by NBA scouts aren't necessarily linked. And just because he would probably be picked in the first round doesn't mean that a team will give him the coveted promise.
Isaac Trotter predicts Amari Allen to return to Alabama for his sophomore season
College basketball expert Isaac Trotter penned a long piece on CBS on Wednesday with intel he's gathered from the NBA Combine, and he made predictions on all the players weighing stay-or-go decisions.
Trotter noted that his picks aren't stone-cold locks, but rather educated guesses. His educated guess right now is that Allen will be back at Alabama for his sophomore season.
Trotter noted that Allen, measuring in at just a shade over 6-foot-5, was disappointing for scouts who hoped he would be closer to his listed 6-foot-8 height at Alabama. His athletic testing, highlighted by a 42.5-inch maximum vertical leap, quelled some of those issues, but Allen's height means he's better suited as a "big guard" in the NBA rather than the wing most scouts had him pegged as.
Oats has pitched putting Allen on-ball a lot more next season at Alabama, which would be pivotal for his development. Allen believes that he could have a monster season for the Crimson Tide as a sophomore.
"I definitely feel like I can go back to college and be a 20 and 10 guy, Allen told reporters on Wednesday. "Ultimately, though, I want to go to the NBA. The NBA is my main goal and has always been my main goal. So to be this close and have the opportunity to go in that mid-first round, it'd be kind of hard to turn that down as well. So it's a tough decision to make."
If Allen came back and had that type of year in Tuscaloosa, then it's easy to see him having a Labaron Philon-like rise in the draft. Philon went through the draft process after his freshman season, too, ultimately deciding to return to Alabama at the last minute after not being a lock to go in the first round. Philon averaged 22 points per game as a sophomore and was a 3rd Team All-American. He now has a strong chance of getting picked in the lottery this year.
That is something that will undoubtedly weigh on Allen's decision, along with next year's class widely being thought of as weaker than this year's.
And while Allen wants a first-round promise, it sounds as if he's looking for the right team to give him that promise, too. He seems to understand that all organizations are not built the same in terms of development.
"Our thing is more fit. Obviously, first round. If it was second round, I would go back to school. But our thing is more fit and player development than a specific pick."
Allen has until May 27th at 11:59 pm ET to decide whether to stay in the draft or return to school.
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