The first College Football Playoff bracket will be revealed on Tuesday. It's hard to believe we've already made it to November, but it's officially the stretch run of the regular season, and every result from here is magnified.
For Alabama, they already used up one of a likely two mulligans by losing the season opener to Florida State. The Crimson Tide bounced back with seven straight victories from there, including four in a row against ranked opponents.
Kalen DeBoer's team will find itself slotted into a favorable spot in the first playoff rankings as a result.
This time last year, Alabama was 6-2 and found itself ranked 11th in the first playoff poll. The Tide moved up as high as 7th two weeks later, but fell out of the playoff picture with an embarrassing road loss to Oklahoma.
So while Alabama will begin November in a better spot this year, it knows the treacherous path that still lies ahead with three challenging SEC games left on the schedule. Alabama's performance in September and October gives it one additional mulligan, but DeBoer and company will hope to secure a first-round bye by running the table the rest of the way.
Let's take a crack at projecting the field before the committee releases its rankings on Tuesday.
The projected College Football Playoff Field:
- Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0)
- Indiana Hoosiers (9-0)
- Texas A&M Aggies (8-0)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)
- Georgia Bulldogs (7-1)
- Ole Miss Rebels (8-1)
- Oregon Ducks (7-1)
- BYU Cougars (8-0)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-1)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-2)
- Virginia Cavaliers (8-1)
- Memphis Tigers (8-1)*
First Teams Out: Texas, Oklahoma
Both Texas and Oklahoma - along with several other playoff contenders - will be ranked ahead of Memphis when the poll gets released on Tuesday, but the Tigers will be positioned for the 12-seed as the highest-ranked champion from the Group of Five.
Some believe Indiana may overtake Ohio State for the top overall seed on the strength of the Hoosiers' road win over Oregon topping anything the Buckeyes have done to date. Heather Dinich believes Alabama will be No. 3, jumping Texas A&M, thanks to the Crimson Tide's road win over Georgia and the three additional ranked wins Alabama has banked.
There will certainly be discussions between Oregon and Ole Miss. Both have close road losses to contenders, though I believe the Rebels' road win over Oklahoma will give them the edge over the Ducks.
There will be much discussion on what to do with undefeated BYU, too. They are likely to be safely in the playoff field, but the Cougars are just 14th in ESPN's FPI and have played the 46th-ranked strength of schedule to date. They are 4th in strength of record, however.
It will be fascinating to see if the committee favors a pair of two-loss SEC teams (Texas and Oklahoma) over one-loss Virginia. Whichever conference draws the short straw is sure to be outraged.
Here's how the matchups would look based on the above projection:
BYES: Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, and Alabama
First Round:
5. Georgia vs. 12. Memphis
6. Ole Miss vs. 11. Virginia
7. Oregon vs. 10. Notre Dame
8. BYU vs. 9. Texas Tech
The 4-seed would provide a challenging path for the Crimson Tide. They would likely face Georgia in the quarterfinals in a rematch of September's matchup in Athens. A win over the Bulldogs would likely set Alabama up to take on defending National Champion Ohio State in the semifinals.