Alabama can clinch a College Football Playoff bid this weekend, barring a doomsday scenario everywhere else in the SEC.
One more SEC win almost certainly clinches a spot in the SEC Championship Game for the Crimson Tide. And a spot in the SEC Championship should be enough also to clinch a place in the playoff, regardless of what happens in Atlanta, if CFP committee chairman Mack Rhoades is to be believed.
Rhoades was asked on Tuesday night, following the release of the second College Football Playoff rankings for this season, about how the committee would potentially treat a team that lost in a conference championship game.
The question comes from some believing that you may be better off not playing in a conference championship game, particularly in the SEC, if you're one of the logjam of one-loss teams like Alabama, Georgia, and Ole Miss.
Rhoades says the committee doesn't view it like that.
"For the committee, we look at it as a positive if you're playing in the championship game," Rhoades said. "It's another datapoint. It's certainly recognized when we think about record strength. Obviously, you win it, that's a plus. If you lose it, theoretically, it's not supposed to hurt you. Could it hurt you? If it was a game where it wasn't competitive and you completely got blown away, then that would be a conversation, candidly, in the room amongst the committee."
Alabama likely one win away from clinching playoff berth
That win, of course, would need to come against one of its two final SEC opponents, Oklahoma or Auburn. The Eastern Illinois game next week is irrelevant and a foregone conclusion.
Kalen DeBoer will certainly hope his team can go out and seal the deal this weekend at home against Oklahoma. Nobody - not DeBoer, the players, nor Alabama fans - wants the season to be on the line in a road Iron Bowl on the final weekend of November.
If Alabama can win both, it seems likely the Crimson Tide will clinch a first-round bye, regardless of what happens in the SEC Championship Game. If the result in Atlanta isn't supposed to "hurt," then it's hard to see the Tide dropping below No. 4 if they win out heading in.
Alabama could probably also get a first-round bye if it loses one of the final two conference games but still wins the SEC Championship Game.
A loss to Oklahoma or Auburn and then a loss in the SEC Championship Game, then Alabama is likely hosting a home playoff game in the first round.
With eight straight wins, Alabama has put itself in excellent playoff position. It just has to finish the job down the stretch.