The last Coaches Poll of the 2024 regular season ranks Alabama Football where it should be relative to some other Playoff contenders. The Dec. 1 Coaches Poll ranks SMU, Indiana, and Boise State above Alabama because they have only one loss. A valid argument can be made that the Strength of Schedule (SOS) of those three teams doesn't warrant their lofty rankings. The SOS for the Hoosiers is No. 65; SMU is No. 75, and Boise State is No. 86; compared to the Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 16.
So far the CFP Selection Committee has paid lip service to SOS. With the regular season complete, it is time for the committee to adjust - or risk losing credibility. SOS is only one data point. For an undefeated Oregon team, an SOS of No. 60 doesn't much matter. Rightly or wrongly, the committee is prepared to not punish 1-loss Notre Dame and Penn State for unimpressive SOS rankings. Penn State is an acceptable No. 36, while the Fighting Irish are No. 57.
The SOS benefit of the doubt should flip when the Selection Committee ranks two and three loss teams. Teams that should be rewarded for their SOS are Alabama Football at No. 16; South Carolina at No. 15 and Ohio State at No. 26. Teams that should be punished (along with Indiana, SMU, and Boise State) are Miami at No. 55; Iowa State at No. 68 and Arizona State at No. 72.
The Coaches Poll provides a guide the Selection Committee should consider. The Top 17 teams are 1) Oregon; 2) Texas; 3) Penn State; 4) Notre Dame; 5) Georgia; 6) Tennessee; 7) SMU; 8) Ohio State; 9) Indiana; 10) Boise State; 11) Alabama; 12) South Carolina; 13) Arizona State; 14) Miami; 15) Ole Miss; 16) Iowa State; 17) Clemson.
Alabama Football Playoff Scenario
The Coaches Poll correctly does not overvalue Miami for two losses and zero quality wins. If the Selection Committee ranks like the Coaches Poll, an SMU win over Clemson in the ACC Championship Game would mean Alabama Football would make the Playoff as the No. 12 seed.