Much is being written about Alabama Basketball taking on the Duke Blue Devils in the Elite Eight. After one of the greatest wins in NCAA Tournament history, celebrating had a short window before all attention turned to the Blue Devils.
Computer models and sportsbooks agree that Duke is a solid favorite. ESPN's BPI algorithm gives the Alabama Crimson Tide only a 27.6% probability of winning.
Duke has lost one game since November. Their scoring leader, freshman Cooper Flagg, is almost everyone's choice to be selected No. 1 in the 2025 NBA Draft. Duke coach Jon Scheyer and his players intend to change nothing against the Crimson Tide - and why should they? What they do works wonderfully well. Scheyer's message to his players is, "you don't have to do anything different once you're here. You have to do it at a high level, but you don't have to do anything different."
At some point Saturday night, Alabama must force a change to the Blue Devils' mindset. Nate Oats will have more than one approach prepared to take the Blue Devils off their game. Doing so will be anything but easy. Duke players are and should be steadfastly confident. Some pundits claim the Crimson Tide will battle far greater pressure. But discounting Alabama's confidence would be a mistake for Duke. Alabama players know they can win. And while it is a big game for both teams, it carries more importance for the Crimson Tide.
Writing for Alabama Crimson Tide SI, Katie Windham gave the game its perfect description: "Ultimate Blue Blood vs. New Blood." Alabama players appear hungry for a statement win. One Duke player said he knows the game will be a war on the glass. It will be. On the glass and everywhere else.
Most college basketball experts conclude Duke is too good for an Alabama upset. They will cite Ken Pomeroy's data of the Blue Devils being No. 1 in Offensive Efficiency and No. 5 in Defensive Efficiency. By comparison, Alabama Basketball is No. 4 in Offensive Efficiency and No. 27 in Defensive Efficiency. For the season, Duke's FG% is 49.5% and 38.5% from three, compared to Alabama at 48.7% and 36.6%. In addition, the Blue Devils are a tremendous offensive rebounding team.
Alabama Basketball and Duke SOS
Those impressive Duke advantages almost evaporate when it is considered Bama's stats are from the No. 1 Strength of Schedule (SOS) and Duke's SOS is No. 57 (per KPom).
Duke's scoring has been more consistent than Alabama's. But, using Alabama's most recent eight games, which include games against Tennessee, Auburn, Kentucky, and two against Florida, Alabama has shot 49.5% overall and 37.9% from three. Those stats are comparable to Duke, but against stiffer competition.
Including the ACC Tournament, Duke played only three ACC games against two teams (Clemson and Lousiville) that are marginally better defensively than Alabama. The Blue Devils lost to Clemson. More significantly, no ACC team other than Duke has an offense close to being as explosive as Alabama's. And no ACC team plays at the pace of the Crimson Tide.
Duke is an outstanding team, and Alabama must play its best game to win. But Nate Oats and his players are correct in expecting to defeat the Blue Devils.
Note: Alabama and Duke stats provided by Sports Reference and ncaa.com