Saturday's Alabama Basketball loss to Florida was close to unbearable for Crimson Tide fans. Some describe the loss as more painful than any other defeat they have witnessed as an Alabama fan.
No such emotional responses are written into computer algorithms. All the most well-known computer models still highly value the Crimson Tide. Alabama is no lower than college basketball's No. 6 team in rankings by the NCAA NET, ESPN BPI, KPI, Ken Pomeroy, Bart Torvik, and Evan Miyakawa. Kevin Paugh still has the Crimson Tide at No. 2 in his KPI. The Miya and Torvik rankings have the Crimson Tide at No. 5. The other three have Alabama at No. 6.
No algorithm can calculate all the variables that can occur in a single NCAA Tournament game. They become more accurate when three or four games are projected. Early-round matchups are often talent mismatches, and easier to predict without using an algorithm. At the Elite Eight level and beyond computer models provide the best indicator.
What do the computer rankings mean for the NCAA Tournament? They are valuable for projecting probability when considering a team making a run to the Elite Eight or beyond. The ESPN BPI does a good job of presenting probability.
Alabama Basketball Elite Eight and Final Four Probability
The BPI has nine teams with a 33.5% or higher probability of reaching the Elite Eight. Alabama has the sixth-highest probability at 42.2%. The other eight are Duke (69.7%); Houston (65.3%); Auburn (59.3%); Florida (48%); Tennessee (45.2%); Iowa State (37.9%); Texas Tech (36.9%); and Arizona (33.5%).
The BPI has six teams with a 20.5% or higher probability of making the Final Four. The Alabama Crimson Tide is sixth at 20.5%. Duke is 53.8%, Houston 48.1%, Auburn 40.3%, Florida 27.5%, and Tennessee is at 24.3%.