Alabama football fans, who are disgruntled with playoff rankings and who yearn for the old BCS ranking system, might be surprised. Using the computer models from the BCS era, Notre Dame would be ranked above the Crimson Tide.
Two of the six computer rankings for the BCS were provided by Jeff Sagarin and Kenneth Massey. Adding to that duo's current rankings, ESPN's FPI rankings, and the result is that Notre Dame is ranked higher than Alabama.
The three models favor Alabama over other projected playoff teams. The FPI has Alabama ranked No. 5, behind the Fighting Irish at No. 3 and Oregon at No. 3. Alabama is ranked above Georgia (No. 6), Texas Tech (No. 7), Texas A&M (No. 9), Ole Miss (No. 13) , and Oklahoma (No. 14). BYU might win the Big 12 championship and knock Alabama out of the Playoff. The FPI ranks the Cougars at No. 15.
The current Sagarin Ratings have Notre Dame No. 2, Oregon, No. 3, Indiana, No. 4, Georgia No. 5, Texas A&M, No. 6, and Alabama No. 7. Below the Crimson Tide are texas Tech (No. 8), Ole Miss (No. 10), and Oklahoma (No. 11). Those who distrust computer models have a good example with Sagarin ranking 5-6 Penn State No. 12.
Massey's current rankings have Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, Georgia , and Texas A&M as the top five. The Fighting Irish are No.6, and Alabama is No. 7. Lower than the Crimson Tide, from No. 8 to No. 11 are Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and BYU.
Alabama Football and the Iron Bowl
ESPN projects that Alabama has a 73.5% probability of beating Auburn and a 60% probability of making the final playoff field. The 60% is the eighth-highest among all FBS teams. Using ESPN's Playoff Predictor, a win over Auburn and a loss in the SEC Championship Game drops the Crimson Tide's playoff chance slightly to 59%.
Regarding the Iron Bowl outcome, according to FanDuel , the spread has shifted to Alabama -5.5. Sagarin's prediction mirrors that spread. Bill Connelly also has the Crimson Tide winning by six points.