Despite a dirt dishing frenzy on SEC Football, computer models tell a different story

What is the most accurate SEC Football perspective and how is NIL impacting championship potential?

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Notre Dame Football never has a shortage of fans. Even so, more than ever before, college football fans were pulling for the Fighting Irish on Thursday night. The main reason why is the widespread hate of SEC Football.

Going back to the 2003 season the bully SEC Football was deemed to be produced 15 National Champions. The rest of college football produced eight in the same period. The dominance of SEC Football garnered respect. Even more, it produced deep-seated jealousy.

Responses to the SEC's current, post-season performance claim a new parity in college football. NIL is being celebrated as college football's 'Great Leveler'.

One not even complete college football post-season is a small sample. The small sample suggests that a few top programs may have reached the SEC's talent level. Two of them, Ohio State and Notre Dame appear to have better talent this season than most SEC teams. The Buckeyes are portrayed as having the best talent money can buy.

Writing for CBS, John Talty states that the Buckeyes and two other college football programs have the most funds in player payrolls. Unsurprisingly, the other two are Oregon and Texas. According to an NIL agent and reported by Talty, Oregon's mega-donor, Phil Knight "is bankrolling that whole thing and wants to see them win a national title. They are really, really aggressive with money."

No one knows how high Knight is willing to go, but so far nothing blocks him from doubling or tripling the $20M Ohio State is reported to have spent on its 2024 roster. A one-game sample from Ohio State drubbing Oregon is not conclusive. Maybe it only shows a contradiction that money can and cannot buy championships.

What about the Alabama Crimson Tide and the rest of SEC Football?

There are few, if any, poverty programs among the 16 SEC football programs. Alabama Football certainly is not one. So far Kalen DeBoer has been able to hold on to Ryan Williams against what have been rumored as huge offers to transfer. Alabama landed its top quarterback prospect, Keelon Russell, without busting its payroll budget.

With no required transparency, reports of college football payroll budgets are at best educated guesses. When Ohio State's AD stated the Buckeyes spent over $20M on the 2024 roster, was the real number much higher? The most plausible educated guesses about SEC Football programs have Texas exceeding $20M, with LSU, Texas A&M, Georgia, and Ole Miss not far behind. Alabama Football is believed to trail those five SEC programs but not significantly.

If too early conclusions must be made, some minority opinions have merit. First, money was not a championship equalizer for Oregon. So if Ohio State wins it all, let's not just knee-jerk espouse that all future championships will be bought.


Secondly, SEC teams' post-season weaknesses do not prove the rest of college football has caught the SEC. If the gap between the SEC and the rest of college football has substantially narrowed (or as some suggest disappeared) it should show up in the rankings from credible computer models. The latest rankings from the ESPN FPI and Jeff Sagarin continue to show the power of SEC Football.

The Football Power Index (FPI) has 10 SEC teams in its recent top 20 rankings. The top two are Texas at No. 2 and the Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 4. With Ole Miss at No. 5 and Georgia at No. 6, four of the top six are SEC teams. Jeff Sagarin has nine SEC teams in his top 20, with five in the top 10.

The SEC is 8-6 in post-season play with Texas still playing. There is no argument the Tennessee, Alabama, and Georgia losses were an embarrassment. The three-game sample is too small to call the results a trend.

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