Before the Oklahoma game, Alabama had been one of college football's best teams in turnover margin. Now, Alabama does not even lead the SEC and is tied for No. 19 nationally.
Can a previous team strength become a flaw, and perhaps a fatal one, in the space of one game? The Oklahoma Sooners were confident they could gain a fumble turnover against Ty Simpson. They had good reason to be. Simpson continued a negative roll on Saturday with his fifth consecutive game with a sack fumble.
The problem is not Simpson's alone. While Kalen DeBoer was correct in saying, "You can only hold on for so long, and I feel like with the blitz they had, you’re going to get overwhelmed and outnumbered. So you’ve just got to understand the situation. I know it's third down, and he wants to stay on the field, but he's got to understand, you know, your defense playing pretty good too. You’ve just got to live with punting once in a while." But against the Sooners' pressure, it sometimes came quickly and from angles outside Simpson's peripheral vision.
Perhaps more troubling is that the Crimson Tide's recent offensive struggles appear to be rattling Simpson. His accuracy has dropped, and his reading of zone pass coverage appears to have worsened as well.
The 2025 Alabama Crimson Tide will live or die on the decision-making, passing accuracy, and ball security of Ty Simpson. Alabama does not have enough of a running attack to compensate for Simpson being much less than outstanding. He has shown himself capable of being a game-changer, but when he underperforms, no change in Ryan Grubb's play-calling can make a difference.
For most of three quarters against the Sooners, Grubb's play-calling was superb. After that, the Alabama OC may have shaded too conservatively. The problem Grubb faces in any close game is that Alabama's Special Teams play is so poor that it can never be counted as anything but a liability. If it were a strength, Kane Wommack's greatly improved defense could make up for many offensive inefficiencies.
A Good Alabama Crimson Tide Defense
Going back to the win over Vanderbilt game, the Passer Rating for Alabama's QB opponents has ranged from 111.2 to 117.8. All six of those quarterbacks, including Oklahoma's John Mateer, fell short of their season average. Four of them were well below their average against Alabama. In Alabama's last four games, Wommack's defense has held teams to a 3.1-yard rushing average.
Wommack's defense will need to continue its improvement for Playoff success, but it is likely to already be near its ceiling for this season. Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb are forced to ask much of Simpson - maybe too much. There is no other plausible option. And a replication of Simpson's turnovers would make Alabama dangerously vulnerable against Texas A&M, Georgia, and most playoff teams.
Note: Stats provided by Sports Reference and cfbstats.com