Ty Simpson opted to enter the 2026 NFL Draft over returning to Alabama - or entering the Transfer Portal - because he believed his spot as a first-round pick was secured.
Perhaps that was premmature thinking.
Despite Simpson and his father reporting that the NFL feedback he received was strictly first-round grades, ESPN's Matt Miller offered a different assessment after spending the last week at the Senior Bowl.
"Simpson doesn't have a Round 1 grade on my board, and I couldn't find a single team that would give him one during conversations at the Senior Bowl," Miller wrote in his ESPN mock draft posted on Monday. ..."Simpson's lack of size and arm strength could ultimately push him down the board, but his poise and processing skills are NFL-level."
As a result, Miller projected Simpson to be selected with the No. 44 overall pick in the 2nd round by the New York Jets. He's still the second QB off the board behind projected No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza, but it appears the former Alabama signal-caller is far from a lock to be picked in the first round.
ESPN's Matt Miller has Ty Simpson falling to the 2nd Round of the NFL Draft
It's still too early in the pre-draft process for Simpson or his camp to freak out. The former Alabama QB will still get his chance to impress scouts at the NFL Combine and his Pro Day, and he should blow teams away in meetings with his ability to process.
His cerebralness is his biggest calling card as a potential NFL starter. He can diagnose pre- and post-snap, and go through his progressions better than any other quarterback who played college football this past season.
In his lone season as the Alabama starter, Simpson put together a terrific season in leading the Crimson Tide to 11 wins and the College Football Playoff. Despite inconsistencies all around him on the offense, Simpson put up over 3500 passing yards with 28 touchdowns to just five interceptions.
His tape, particularly over the first half of the season, was that of an NFL starter. His 15 starts are a red flag, however, as his lack of experience could mean he's not immediately ready to step in and start, like most franchises hope for quarterbacks they choose in the first round.
If Simpson can maintain his standing as QB2 behind Mendoza, however, it increases the likelihood that he'll be a first-round pick, regardless of what grade most NFL teams have for him. Quarterbacks are overdrafted every year. Only once in the last 13 NFL Drafts has just one QB been selected in the first round.
With as many QB-needy teams as there are in the NFL right now, it's hard to believe we'll see that occur in April.