Does Alabama Football or Tennessee have the best chance to make the CFB Playoffs?

Murkiness is a good word to describe what is known about how the new CFB Playoff 12-team selection will conclude. With Saturday night's impressive win over LSU, Alabama Football appears close to being a lock to make the Playoff field. Seeding projections for the Crimson Tide run from a 2-seed to an 11-seed.

ESPN Analytics predicts the Alabama Crimson Tide has an 81.7% probability of beating Oklahoma and a 92.2% probability of beating Auburn. Beating Mercer is a foregone conclusion, though the FCS Bears are better than a couple of dozen FBS teams.

ESPN's Allstate Playoff Predictor is a fun tool. Relying on its accuracy should probably be avoided, but if nothing less., it can be used to assess relative Playoff chances between two teams.

Based on the ESPN FPI, Alabama Football has a better chance of making the Playoffs than Tennessee, even though in a head-to-head analysis, the Vols' win over the Crimson Tide would carry some weight. Alabama has the sixth-highest probability at 75.7%. Close behind the Crimson Tide, the Vols have the eighth-highest at 73.6%.

Tennessee controls its Playoff future and only needs to finish the regular season with three more wins. With that finish, the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives the Vols a greater than 99% probability to make the 12-team field as a projected 7-seed. Win the SEC Championship Game and the Vols are projected as a 2-seed. With a loss to Georgia and no trip to Atlanta, Tennessee's probability drops to 76%. If the Allstate Predictor is accurate, Tennessee would be vulnerable if advancing to the SEC Championship Game. A Tennessee loss to Georgia and a loss in Atlanta would drop Tennessee's probability to just 26% to make the Playoffs.

The Alabama Football loss to Tennessee just one of many data points

For Alabama, a 10-2 regular season record, with no visit to Atlanta gives the Crimson Tide a greater than 99% probability of making the Playoffs as an 8-seed. A 10-2 Alabama, followed by winning the SEC Championship Game is projected to move the Crimson Tide to a 2-seed. If Alabama closes the regular season at 10-2 and then loses the SEC Championship Game, its Playoff probability would remain strong, at 77%, but as the 11-seed.

Based on these projections, if Georgia beats Tennessee, the Vols would be better off not advancing to the SEC Championship Game.

The Allstate Playoff Predictor is fun, but in its hundreds of thousands of simulations, it cannot predict what will be in the minds of the members of the Playoff Selection Committee. Selection Committee Chair, Warde Manuel recently said a three-loss SEC team after a loss in the SEC Championship Game would not be automatically excluded from the Playoff field. The committee apparently prefers not to punish a team for playing an extra game.