One computer model projects the Alabama Crimson Tide is a touchdown better than LSU. ESPN Analytics gives Alabama a 69.6% probability of winning. Almost as many college football 'experts' have LSU winning as those picking the Crimson Tide.
All the signs suggest two teams that are closely matched. Even if Alabama has a somewhat more talented roster, playing in Tiger Stadium could neutralize all of such an advantage.
The game is a must-win for both teams, giving neither side an edge from that perspective. So what will be the deciding factors? The winning margin may result from intangibles that are real but imprecise as prediction tools. A too often cited intangible is which team wants it more. It is impossible to know that in advance and on Saturday night it is unlikely either team will get an edge from 'wanting it more.'
Alabama Crimson Tide and LSU Intangibles
LSU might have an intangible advantage from having not only lost its last game but losing to the Texas A&M Aggies in a collapse fashion. The Alabama Crimson Tide might have an intangible advantage because, in the post-Nick Saban era of Alabama Football, the Crimson Tide has had something to prove all season long. Coming up short against Vanderbilt and Tennessee fuels the Tide's 'something to prove' fire even more.
College football head coaches are not immune to pressure. Another intangible is whether one coach feels a larger burden to win the game. Some LSU fans believe that the coach is Brian Kelly. Martin Sullivan writing for Reveille stated, "the Alabama game will define the Brian Kelly era for LSU."
Sullivan added "Kelly was not hired to get LSU to nine or 10 wins every year and end with a middling seed. Fundamental to reaching that next gear of a repeat playoff entrant is establishing a dominant expectation. A win would make Kelly 2-0 at home against Alabama and 1-0 against Kalen DeBoer. If Kelly is to be deemed a successful hire, both should be expected with little exception."
If Sullivan is correct, not only does the LSU team have a must-win situation. Brian Kelly appears to have a more burdensome must-win situation. Sullivan added, "Kelly's tenure will be heavily defined by Saturday’s outcome. A loss will invoke feelings of an underwhelming status quo, continued envy of programs like Alabama, and dreams of competitive play in January dissipating."
Elite coaches thrive under pressure. If Kelly feels pressure akin to what Sullivan describes, he may relish it. Or, having not yet proven himself as an elite SEC coach, doubt could affect Kelly. A small dose of doubt at a key moment could be the intangible that determines the game's outcome.