By the last day of August, SEC football fans can choose to look away from hype and spin. The first week of the 2025 season will provide results from which to build informed opinions. Some surprises can be expected.
At least half of the SEC's teams should win easily in Week 1. Two SEC football teams have toss-up road games: Texas at Ohio State and LSU at Clemson. Auburn is a slight favorite on the road against Baylor. Regardless of which three teams win those games, the results will not be considered upsets.
Alabama Football and Tennessee Vols fans seek some clarity from the games against Florida State and Syracuse. Question marks for both teams can be answered while SEC Football notches two wins against Power Four teams.
SEC Football Week 1 Surprise Upsets
So where to look for SEC Football Week 1 surprises? Look to Hattiesburg, MS and Lexington, KY.
According to CBS Sports, Southern Miss (Mississippi Southern for Alabama football fans from the Bryant era) is college football's No. 125 team out of 136 teams. Mississippi State is No. 70. The Bulldogs are favored by 11.5 points on the road. The Golden Eagles were 1-11 last season, but they could be considerably improved under new coach Charles Huff.
Huff brought 70 new players to Hattiesburg, including 21 he coached at Marshall. Among the 70 are 31 former Power Four players, including 17 from the SEC. Potentially a game-changer for USM is Marshall transfer quarterback Braylon Braxton. Charles Huff knows how to win, and while Week 1 might be too soon, Mississippi State could be vulnerable.
In Lexington, it would not be a major shock for Toledo to upset Kentucky. The Wildcats are favored by 9.5 points, and Kentucky should win. But, looking at the CBS preseason rankings, Toledo at No. 69 is not far behind Kentucky at No. 57. Even staunch Kentucky fans are thinking that Mark Stoops' run in Lexington has fizzled. After going 4-8 last season, the Wildcats have won only 18 games over the last three seasons. With Tucker Gleason at quarterback, Toledo will have a big edge over Kentucky QB Zach Calzada. Gleason and Calzada are at opposite ends of any measurement of consistency. That could be enough for a Toledo upset.
Note: Player and team information provided by Sports Reference. FanDuel provided all betting spreads.