No non-conference champion, three-loss team has ever made a College Football Field. Clemson made the first 12-team field last season with three losses, but the Tigers were the ACC Champion. With a 9-3 record on Selection Sunday, Alabama Football failed to make the field last season. There was a strong schedule argument that Alabama, rather than SMU, should have made the field. However, losing to 6-win Oklahoma late, without scoring a touchdown, invalidated any SOS claim. The Alabama Crimson Tide's loss to Michigan added a negative exclamation point.
Alabama football fans hope the CFP Selection Committee learned from last season that schedule strength matters and, thereby, are less influenced in the future by any number of losses comparisons. There is no guarantee that it will happen in the 2025-26 Playoff cycle.
A best guess is the only way a three-loss SEC would make the next Playoff field would be as a 10-3 SEC Champion. However, it is unlikely that a 3-loss SEC team would ever make the SEC Championship Game.
The challenge for the 2025 Alabama Crimson Tide is that other potential SEC Playoff contenders, Texas, Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, and Ole Miss, all have easier schedules than Alabama. The good news is that Alabama has a chance to beat three of the teams in the regular season. The not-so-good news is Lane Kiffin's Rebels and Josh Heupel's Vols have weak schedules, near the point of embarrassment.
Chase Goodbread points out that Ole Miss has no non-conference Power Four opponents. Goodbread also reminds SEC fans that half of Tennessee's SEC opponents (Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Mississippi State) won a combined six SEC games last season.
Ole Miss will not play Alabama or Texas in the regular season, and the Rebels' game against LSU is in Oxford. Ole Miss must take on Georgia in Athens, but otherwise, it has a pretty cushy path to 10 regular-season wins.
SEC Football Loss Projections
Alabama football fans can take heart from the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). ESPN's model projects a 2.8 loss total for Alabama. Projected loss totals for other potential SEC Playoff contenders are 3.4 for Tennessee, 3.8 for Ole Miss, and 4-2 for the LSU Bengal Tigers.
Progress on a Playoff format for the 2026-27 season has slowed to a crawl. The SEC and the Big Ten have the control to decide, but the Power Two no longer agree on the best format.