Early betting odds should calm Alabama fans' nerves about a 1st-round March Madness upset

The 4-13 isn’t the new 5-12 upset, but a few No. 4 seeds got a scare last March, and two years ago Yale knocked off Auburn in a 4-13 matchup. For the second time in three years, Nate Oats and the Crimson Tide are back on the four line, this time facing Hofstra in the Midwest Region, and two years after running away from Charleston 109-96, Vegas isn’t putting the Tide on upset alert. 

Nate Oats delivers brutally honest verdict on Alabama's seasons before March Madness

After the bracket was released on Sunday evening, the sportsbooks didn’t lag far behind in releasing their opening odds for the first round. In the FanDuel Sportsbook, Alabama opened as a 12.5-point favorite with -120 juice against the CAA Champions. 

That’s a considerable margin for an Alabama team that closed as a nine-point favorite over Charleston the last time it was a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Tide managed to cover that spread, and look well-positioned to do the same against Hofstra. 

Alabama opens as a 12.5-point favorite over Hofstra

In the NIL era, and especially with the introduction of revenue-sharing from the House Settlement this summer, the separation between the haves and the have-nots in college basketball is greater than ever. 

Last year, the only double-digit seeds to make the Sweet 16 were John Calipari’s 10th-seeded Arkansas Razorbacks. No mid-major programs made the second weekend, and the Final Four consisted of all four No. 1 seeds. Many have speculated that it was the death of Cinderella, and she may not be returning anytime soon. 

At 87th, Hofstra is the highest-rated 13-seed by KenPom, which theoretically should make them a threat to the Tide. However, Hofstra went 0-1 in Quad 1 games. The Pride did manage to knock off Pitt and Syracuse, but those were both ACC bottom-feeders nose-diving towards a coaching change this offseason. 

The separation is so stark that Duke, Arizona, and Michigan are all historically great teams by KenPom’s ratings system, and part of the reason for that is that its adjusted rating is based on the average team for that year, and this year, the average team is worse than most seasons in the past. 

Alabama is not invulnerable. The Tide have plenty of flaws that could be exposed by any team this March. Yet, even after Alabama’s embarrassing early exit in the SEC Tournament to Ole Miss, the betting odds aren’t predicting Oats’s team to slip up again in the first round of the Big Dance.