Early Heisman Trophy odds reveal no upper hand in Alabama’s offseason QB competition

Despite Miami’s best efforts and most lucrative offers, Ty Simpson is heading to the NFL. Whether he opted for the league or the Transfer Portal, for the second-straight year, Alabama will have to underdog an offseason quarterback competition to determine its Week 1 starter. 

The competition will be between former Washington four-star recruit Austin Mack, who followed Kalen DeBoer to Tuscaloosa, and 2025 five-star Keelon Russell, the No. 2 quarterback in his class. Conventional wisdom would say that the job is Russell’s to lose, as a highly-touted recruit who opted to stay put rather than test the Transfer Portal in search of a starting job. However, the betting market would disagree. 

On Wednesday, FanDuel released its Heisman Trophy opening odds for the 2026 college football season. The Crimson Tide certainly don’t have the favorite, but they did have a quarterback crack the 20 graphic that they posted to social media: redshirt junior Austin Mack. 

At first glance, it would seem that Vegas is ostensibly favoring Mack to win the starting job over Russell. However, if you dig a bit deeper, Russell and Mack have identical odds to win the award at +5500, just ahead of another group of quarterbacks, Penn State’s Rocco Becht, BYU’s Bear Bachmeier, and Louisville’s Lincoln Kienholz. 

Vegas sets identical odds for Austin Mack and Keelon Russell to win the Heisman Trophy

Ty Simpson dealt with injuries down the stretch of the season, and after a massive hit and a lopsided score knocked him out of the Rose Bowl against Indiana, Mack got the nod from DeBoer to take over. Playing most of the second half, Mack went 11-for-16 for 103 yards. 

Through his four appearances in 2025, he completed 24 of his 32 passes for 228 yards and two touchdowns. Russell saw the field only twice as a true freshman, preserving his season of eligibility. Through those limited stints against Louisiana Monroe and Eastern Illinois, he went 11-for-15 for 143 yards and two touchdowns with 17 yards on the ground. 

Mack has bided his time on DeBoer’s roster, sitting behind Michael Penix Jr. at Washington, then Jalen Milroe and Simpson at Alabama. It would seem that it’s his turn to take over the offense, and with his eligibility waning, if he didn’t feel he had a shot to win the job, he would have likely opted for the Transfer Portal. But Russell’s talent may simply be too alluring to bury on the sidelines. 

Russell was the No. 2 QB in the 2025 class to Michigan commit Bryce Underwood, who commanded an NIL package upwards of $10 million to flip from LSU. In many other classes, Russell would have been the top prospect, and with his dual-threat ability, he has drawn comparisons to 2023 Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels. 

Alabama’s QB battle will be the story of the offseason, and without a spring portal window this year for either player to bail if they feel it’s not going their way, it will almost certainly come down to the wire. Vegas certainly thinks so.