Eli Drinkwitz makes bold prediction about the Alabama defense for Week 7 matchup

Through much of the first year and a half of Kalen DeBoer’s tenure, Alabama’s defense has had a glaring weakness: mobile quarterbacks. Diego Pavia first exposed it last season with Vanderbilt’s upset win, and Kane Wommack’s unit has fallen victim to a few others since. 

However, those run defense issues appeared to be rectified last week as the Crimson Tide avenged their loss to Pavia’s Commodores 30-14. That theory will be tested in Week 7 as Alabama visits Beau Pribula and Missouri, but the bigger concern could be slowing down the nation’s leading rusher, running back Ahmad Hardy. 

Though Alabama has improved its tackling and run defense from the start of the season, when Florida State ran roughshod, Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz expects Hardy to show why he’s one of the best in the country on Saturday. 

Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy could reignite Alabama’s run defense issues

One could argue that Hardy has already proven what makes him so good at making the first defender miss, regardless of how he plays against the Crimson Tide. Beyond his 731 rushing yards and nine touchdowns, Hardy leads the country with 46 missed tackles forced. With a stout lower body and impressive contact balance, the sophomore ULM transfer is averaging 5.30 yards after contact. 

Missouri’s offensive line has blocked up the run game well this season, creating robust running lanes for Hardy. However, he’s getting plenty more than just what’s blocked for. Remarkably, Hardy’s 551 yards after contact would be the ninth most total rushing yards of any back in the country. 

PFF also has an “elusive rating,” which is a “signature stat measuring success and impact of a runner with the ball independently of the blocking.” Hardy ranks first in the country among backs with at least 50 carries this year at 232.1, besting, ironically, his replacement at ULM, Braylon McReynolds, who is second-best at 225.7. 

For more perspective, those two are the only backs above 200 by elusiveness rating. Florida’s Jadan Baugh is the second-best in the SEC at 133.2. That mark may come down as Missouri dives deeper into SEC play. So far, the Tigers have played four non-conference games, one only one against a Power 4 opponent, and their lone SEC game has been against South Carolina. 

Even after bowing up against Vandy, Alabama still ranks 63rd in the country in defensive EPA/rush, but 32nd in rushing success rate, which indicates that the unit has been stout on a down-to-down basis, but has allowed more explosive plays, which is reflected by the EPA metric. 

Limiting those big runs from both Hardy and Pribula, who has rushed for 121 yards and three scores this season, will be paramount for Alabama to remain undefeated in conference play.