ESPN's Bill Connelly released his 2025 SEC football preview on Friday, and his SP+ model became the second ESPN computer model revealed to be bullish on Kalen DeBoer and Alabama for the upcoming season.
ESPN's FPI (Football Power Index) has Alabama at No. 3, behind two fellow SEC opponents in Texas and Georgia. Connelly's SP+ is even higher on the Crimson Tide, ranking Alabama No. 2 in the country and as the top team in the SEC.
Connelly's metrics give Alabama a 16.1% chance of winning the SEC Title, slightly ahead of Georgia's 15.6%. Alabama is also given a 30% chance of winning 11+ games. But the SEC is deep, not just top-heavy, and 10 teams are given better than a 1-in-20 chance of winning the league title.
SP+ was higher on the Crimson Tide than human polls last season. Despite the disappointing 9-4 record, SP+ ranked Alabama as the fourth-best team in the country last season. That's in large part due to the wild swings where Alabama looked like the best team in the country: beating Georgia, blowout wins over Missouri and LSU. Those outweighed the catastrophic failures in Nashville and Norman. That wasn't the case in the eyes of the College Football Playoff Committee.
Alabama's returning talent a big reason for high-ranking in SP+
Connelly states that the "cleanest, easiest way" to explain why Alabama ranks at the top of the SEC to begin the season is that they are the only team that finished in the Top 5 of SP+ last season that ranks inside the Top 30 in returning production. In fact, they are the only one of those teams that ranks better than 81st.
Alabama returns four offensive linemen with starting experience from last season, including three full-time starters at LT (Kadyn Proctor), C (Parker Brailsford), and RG (Jaedan Roberts). That's not to mention RT Wilkin Formby, who started multiple games last season, spot-starter and versatile interior lineman Geno VanDeMark, or Texas A&M transfer Kam Dewberry, who has eight career starts under his belt.
Alabama has plenty of talent and experience at the skill positions, with a trio of WRs (Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard, Isaiah Horton) that stacks up against any starting group in the country.
Offensively, it will all come down to QB play. Can Ty Simpson finally take the reins and give the Tide a steadying presence at the position it sorely lacked last season, particularly down the stretch?
Alabama's defense should give Simpson - or Austin Mack/Keelon Russell - time to figure it out. Alabama returns 13 players defensively who logged 200+ snaps a season ago. The only thing holding Kane Wommack's defense back from being elite instead of merely really good, is the ability to get after the quarterback.
If Alabama can must a better pass rush, and if the quarterback play is good - not even great - then this team very well could be the last one standing when it's all said and done.