If you think Alabama is going to have a cakewalk this weekend at home against Vanderbilt, perhaps you should adjust that thinking before disappointment sets in.
This isn't the same Vanderbilt from just two years ago. It's not the same Vanderbilt from the last time the Commodores came to Tuscaloosa in 2022, either. Alabama dominated that game to the tune of a 55-3 rout. That's not going to happen this weekend.
Vanderbilt is a good team now. Diego Pavia, Jerry Kill, and Tim Beck have changed the narrative for Clark Lea in Nashville. The Commodores will come to Tuscaloosa this weekend fully expecting to win, not to just compete and keep it close.
As of Thursday morning on FanDuel, Alabama is a 10.5-point favorite. That has to be the lowest spread for an Alabama/Vanderbilt game in at least two decades. But if ESPN's algorithms are correct, then even that spread is far too high.
Both ESPN's FPI and Bill Connelly's SP+ systems see this game as much closer than the experts out in the desert.
FPI predicts an Alabama win by 6.8 points. The matchup predicitor gives the Crimson Tide a 74% chance of winning the game outright.
SP+ has it even closer. It projects a 29-27 win for Alabama, giving the Tide a 56% chance of an outright win.
Alabama better be ready for a fight against Vanderbilt
The days of blowing out conference opponents are probably over. Rosters are more balanced with the Transfer Portal and NIL than they used to be. The days of dominant teams like Alabama had during the Nick Saban era won't happen anymore. You can't stack your depth chart like you could 5 or 10 years ago.
Any win over a conference foe is a good win. If Alabama can walk away with a one-point win over Vanderbilt this weekend, that should be viewed as a positive outcome. Vanderbilt is a good team, one that has enough juice to take down the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa.
Kalen DeBoer has the better team and the better roster. But Vanderbilt is well-coached, and Diego Pavia has been one of the best quarterbacks in the country so far this season. He is a lot to deal with and rarely makes mistakes. He'll give Vanderbilt a puncher's chance against anyone.
If Alabama brings the same kind of effort it brought against UL Monroe, Wisconsin, and Georgia, then the Crimson Tide should win this game. It just probably won't be a three-score blowout like most fans are probably hoping for.