Alabama basketball put up a dominant and historic performance in the Sweet 16, blowing out 6-seeded BYU 113-88 to advance to the Elite Eight for just the third time in program history, and for the second consecutive season.
Alabama made the Final Four for the first time in program history last year. Standing in the way of a second consecutive berth in the national semifinals is the best team they've played all year, and perhaps one of the greatest college basketball teams of all time.
Duke's KenPom Net Rating of +38.88 is the best of the KenPom era, with data going back to 1997. Analytics show this Blue Devils team as better than either of UConn's back-to-back title teams. Better than 2016 or 2018 Villanova. Better than 2012 Kentucky and 2001 Duke, too.
Alabama is battle tested and will not be intimidated by the elite Blue Devils. Of the Top 5 teams in KenPom, the Crimson Tide has played the four others and will play Duke on Saturday night. Alabama has won games over Houston on a neutral floor and Auburn on the road. They will enter the Prudential Center on Saturday night believing they can win.
The Crimson Tide probably won't be able to rely on hitting 25 three-pointers again. Duke is too good and versatile defensively to allow that.
If you're searching for a weakness for Duke, you're not going to find one. They are elite on both ends of the court and they do everything well. It will take a tremendous effort from Alabama to have a chance to win this game. Even playing at their peak might not be enough for the Crimson Tide on Saturday night.
Players to know for the Duke Blue Devils
Unsurprisingly, it all starts with Cooper Flagg. Flagg is the best player in college basketball - full stop - and will be the No. 1 overall pick in this summer's NBA Draft. He's a dominant force on both ends of the floor, capable of altering games with his ability on either end. A generational talent in the midst of a generational NCAA Tournament run.
In Duke's Sweet 16 win over Arizona, Flagg scored 30 points, grabbed six rebounds, dished seven assists, and blocked three shots. He took out the trash and swept the floor of the Prudential Center after the game, too.
Flagg is the best player, but the Blue Devils aren't solely reliant on him, either. They proved that by winning the ACC Tournament with Flagg sidelined. But they are much, much better with Flagg as the center of it all.
Duke surrounds Flagg with elite shot-makers. He commands a lot of attention and then kicks out to three starters who shoot 40% from deep.
Fellow freshman Kon Knueppel is projected lottery pick in his own right. He shoots 39.9% from three on the season and is the team's second-leading scorer at 14.2 points per game. He's much more than just a three-point shooter, too, with a great ability of punishing close-outs and attacking the rim.
Junior Tyrese Proctor is a knockdown shooter, connecting on 41.2% of his threes. He's also a menacing defender who at 6-foot-6 will make life tough for Alabama's smaller guards.
Tulane transfer Sion James is another elite three-and-D player for the Blue Devils. He does most of his damage from the corner, shooting 41.7% from three on the season. He's another menacing defender at 6-foot-6.
All five of Duke's starters are 6-foot-6 or taller. They are an incredibly difficult matchup because of that, particularly for an Alabama team that plays two 6-foot guards - Mark Sears and Aden Holloway - so many minutes. It will be a big challenge for both of them to find space against Duke.
Rounding out the starting five for Duke is another freshman and projected lottery pick in 7-foot-2 center Khaman Maluach. He's the only member of the starting five who is a non-shooter, but he's an elite offensive rebounder and rim protector. If you are able to break down Duke's guards - who are all elite on-ball defenders - Maluach and Flagg are lurking in the lane to erase shots at the rim.
Jon Scheyer will get as many miles out of his starting five as he can. All but Maluach are likely to play 30+ minutes. He has shrunk his rotation down to seven, with some spot minutes available for Caleb Foster and Isaiah Evans, if necessary.
Senior Mason Gillis will likely see double-digit minutes off the bench. He has only hit 34.4% from three this year, but he shot over 46% at Purdue last season. He's more than capable of getting hot and punishing defenses for leaving him open.
Freshman Patrick Ngongba II is the backup big and he'll get some minutes when Maluach needs a breather, though Duke has also been fully comfortable playing Flagg at the five when needed, too.
Stats to know for Duke
As you might expect from a team KenPom has rated so high, Duke is really good at pretty much everything. They are the most efficient offense in the country and 5th in defensive efficiency.
They hit 38.5% of their three-pointers and 58.6% of their twos, both marks are Top 10 in the country. They don't turn the ball and they hit their free throws when they get there. They're not an elite rebounding team, but a good one, nonetheless. In the loss to Clemson, Duke's only loss since November, the Tigers dominated the glass. Alabama will need to do the same thing to have a shot.
Defensively, the Devils don't force a ton of turnovers, but they are elite in the half-court. They are the No. 1 team in effective field goal percentage defense. They allow only 31.0% from three and a ridiculously elite 43.2% from two. Much like Alabama, Duke funnels everything into the mid-range. They are going to heavily contest threes and allow Flagg and Maluach to contest at the rim.
I expect Alabama's gameplan to be a lot of high pick and rolls with bigs - whichever is being covered by Maluach or Ngongba - in hopes they'll play drop coverage like they normally do and Alabama can punish them for it.
Scheyer's counter will likely be Flagg at the five, and then that doesn't work as well. Flagg isn't a mismatch defensively against bigs or guards; he's comfortable guarding them all.
The one thing Alabama can potentially take advantage of is pushing the tempo and taking advantage of Duke's lack of depth. Alabama plays at the highest tempo in the country; Duke, on the other hand, ranks 264th in the country in tempo. They get a full nine possessions per game less than Alabama, on average.
Duke's halfcourt defense is too good when they set up, so Alabama will have to push the pace and get off quick shots. With Scheyer only preferring to play seven, the Crimson Tide can potentially wear out a team not used to playing at such a frentic pace.
Only three teams in the ACC play at a Top 100 tempo. North Carolina at 34th is the highest, but the Tar Heels don't have the players the Crimson Tide does (wild that that is an accurate statement).
All in all, what Alabama does might not ultimately matter. If Duke plays as well as they are capable of playing, even the Tide's "A" game probably isn't good enough. The Blue Devils have looked like the best team in the country since December and they probably are.
Alabama is capable of beating anyone, but it will take the Tide's best game of the season to slay Goliath in the Elite Eight.