Alabama basketball is on to the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament despite a performance against Robert Morris that didn't inspire much confidence in the Crimson Tide's ability to make a deep March Madness run for a second year in a row.
Alabama held off a pesky Robert Morris squad 90-81 on Friday and will advance to play Saint Mary's on Sunday. The Gaels came from behind to beat Vanderbilt 59-56 in the first round. They're 29-5 overall and have lost two games this calendar year. The losses were by a combined eight points.
They won the West Coast Conference regular season crown, beating Gonzaga twice in the process before the 'Zags got revenge in the WCC Tournament.
One thing is for certain: Alabama will have to play better than it did against Robert Morris to beat Saint Mary's. The Gaels are an experienced team that will not be intimidated by playing an SEC program. They will expect to win. Alabama will have to earn it.
Players to know for Saint Mary's
One of the longest-tenured head coaches in college basketball is Randy Bennett, who has been at the helm of Saint Mary's since 2001. The Gaels have become an NCAA Tournament mainstay. Bennett has led them to the tournament 11 times, including four consecutive seasons.
Saint Mary's is led by senior point guard Augustas Marciulionis, who leads the team in points, assists, and steals per game and won the WCC Player of the Year Award for the second straight season. Marciulionis leads the team in scoring, but the Gaels play good team basketball and at 14.3 PPG he is one of four players averaging double figures in scoring.
Saint Mary's has a lot of big bodies that will make life tough on the Crimson Tide. Arizona transfer and sophomore forward Paulius Murauskas is the team's second-leading scorer and leading rebounder. Starting center Mitchell Saxen is just behind him in rebounds and led the team in blocked shots, winning the WCC Defensive Player of the Year. Saxen had a double-double in the first-round win over Vanderbilt with four key offensive rebounds to boot.
The Gaels can also throw a 7-footer in off the bench in Harry Wessels, who has the team's second-highest offensive rebounding rate behind Saxen.
Senior forward Luke Barrett and sophomore guard Jordan Ross join Marciulionis, Murauskas, and Saxen in the starting five. Barrett is another guy capable of getting a double-double on any given night. He had 12 points and 10 rebounds against Vanderbilt.
Ross led the team in scoring against Vandy with 15 points.
Freshman guard Mikey Lewis was the 6th Man of the Year in the WCC and is the team's best shooter. He has connected on 38.8% of his three-point attempts on the season.
The Gaels will prefer to only play those guys. If they go to eight, Memphis transfer Ashton Hardaway (Penny's son) would probably be the eighth guy off the bench.
Stats to know
The most concerning stat, considering how poor of a job Alabama did keeping Robert Morris off the glass, is that Saint Mary's is even better on the offensive boards. The Gaels are 2nd in the country in offensive rebound rate, per KenPom, rebounding 40.2% of their misses. They attack the glass and give themselves second chance opportunities, something they sorely need considering they're not a great shooting team.
Lewis is a good shooter and Marciulionis can't be discredited at 34.8%, but this is not a team that strikes fear in you from deep. They've shot just 32.5% from three on the year, but that hasn't mattered much considering how often they rebound their own misses. They're solid from two (51.8%) and poor from the foul line (69.5%).
The team that controls the pace of this game is likely to walk out of Cleveland with the win and a birth in the Sweet 16. Alabama plays at the fastest pace in the country while Saint Mary's plays at one of the slowest (360 out of 364 D1 schools). On average, there are about 13 more possessions per game in Alabama games than there are for Saint Mary's. If Alabama can push the tempo, you have to figure the Gaels will struggle to keep up with a seven-man rotation.
If Saint Mary's can successfully slow things down, Alabama will have to execute in the half court at a high-level and knock down some shots. Saint Mary's is 7th in KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are elite in the halfcourt.
What Saint Mary's does well defensively is defending without fouling, contesting every shot, and then cleaning up the glass and not allowing second-chance opportunities. They allow opponents to rebound only 24.6% of their misses. They hold opponents to just 45.9% from two and 31.2% from three.
This game could very well come down to whether or not Alabama can hit outside shots. The Tide dominated Robert Morris in the paint, something that will be much more difficult against the front line of Saint Mary's. Against the Colonials, Alabama shot just 6-of-21 from three and had only five offensive rebounds.
That won't be enough to get it done on Sunday.