In Saturday's NCAA Tournament Selection Committee reveal of the current top 16 seeded teams, Alabama basketball missed the cut. The Crimson Tide and Arkansas were the next-closest teams, meaning both are currently considered 5-seeds.
Reaching the final 3-seed line is much better than being a 4-seed or a 5-seed. Going back to 1985, 3-seeds have reached an Elite Eight 25.6% of the time. The percentage drops to 15.6% for a 4-seed and 7.5% for a 5-seed.
Alabama basketball fans are unsure what the Crimson Tide's Big Dance ceiling will be. Another Elite Eight appearance is a realistic goal as a 3-seed. The Crimson Tide has considerable work to do to reach a 3-seed. Two more regular-season losses and not reaching the SEC Tournament final would likely leave Alabama as a 5-seed.
Alabama Basketball - SEC No. 2?
What the Crimson Tide needs to do is prove that it is the SEC's second-best team. Some Alabama fans might call it defeatism, but Florida is currently a class above the rest of the SEC. It is easy to predict that the Gators will win the SEC double.
In results-based metrics (KPI, SOR, and WAB), Alabama is currently the SEC's top team. The prediction-based models are quite different. In ESPN's BPI, Alabama trails Florida, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt. The Crimson Tide is also fourth, behind the same three teams, according to Bart Torvik's model. Ken Pomeroy's model has Alabama as the SEC's fifth-best, behind Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Arkansas.
The NCAA NET rankings match KPom's top five SEC teams, with the Crimson Tide at No. 21 overall.
Alabama will not gain a rankings boost by beating Mississippi State on Wednesday night. Holding serve with wins at Tennessee, Georgia, and Auburn in Tuscaloosa would boost Alabama into a 3-seed slot or near it. Follow that with two SEC Tournament wins, and Alabama should be a 3-seed on Selection Sunday.
Will the Crimson Tide achieve such a strong finish? Injury recovery and no new injuries are the keys, along with some luck, of course.