As almost always, Alabama Basketball is the underdog taking on Kentucky in Lexington. ESPN, Bart Torvik, and Ken Pomeroy all have the Wildcats beating the Crimson Tide in a close game. Evan Miya's model disagrees, giving the Wildcats only a "37.7% chance of winning" with a projected score of Alabama 90 - Kentucky 87.
The Crimson Tide and the Wildcats have played each other in 154 games. Alabama Basketball has just 10 wins in Lexington. An 11th one is badly needed on Saturday. After Alabama's disappointing loss to Ole Miss and other midweek games, David Cobb, writing for CBS Sports gave grades to the nation's Top 10 teams. Auburn, Iowa State, and Duke earned A-plus grades; Tennessee and Houston earned an 'A'. The Kentucky Wildcats were given an A-minus. Alabama received a C-minus.
Alabama's loss to Ole Miss did not derail any championship goals. Neither would a loss to Kentucky on Saturday. It could indicate a surprising trend in the Crimson Tide's NCAA Tournament prospects. Alabama can overcome a loss to Kentucky, but a deeper hole could be dug by immediately playing as poorly as it did against Ole Miss.
Statistically, Kentucky has some advantages over the Crimson Tide. Kentucky's Mark Pope practices Nate Oats' offensive philosophy. The Cats spread the floor and make threes at 36.5%. Off the bench, Kentucky's Koby Brea makes threes at a 47% clip. The Wildcats are third-best in the SEC and No. 10 in the nation in three-point shooting defense at 28.1%. Defensively the Crimson Tide is close at 28.4%, but offensively, Alabama is well behind the Cats, making only 32% of its threes. Except for the Ole Miss game Alabama makes up such shooting disparity with offensive rebounding. Success on the offensive boards will be essential in Lexington.
After the Ole Miss game, Nate Oats admitted there is good reason to be concerned about Alabama's offensive weaknesses. Part of that concern comes from the Crimson Tide's Turnover Margin. The Crimson Tide is No. 311 among the 355, D1 teams with a Turnover Margin of minus-2.3. Kentucky is No. 160 at plus-.8. Fortunately for Alabama, the Wildcats are not much better than the Crimson Tide at creating turnovers.
An Alabama Basketball Bounce-Back Win
There are reasons to believe Alabama Basketball will get a bounce-back win in Lexington. No doubt the Crimson Tide will be motivated. Alabama has beaten good teams this season and can beat another one; even inside Rupp Arena with 22,000-plus rabid Kentucky fans seeking some Crimson blood.