When two teams, close in coaching and player talent, compete, games most often come down to a handful of critical plays. That is the situation Alabama Football will be in Saturday night against Georgia.
According to FanDuel the Georgia Bulldogs remain the favorite, by a 2.5-point margin. The spread is warranted by the advantage the Sanford Stadium crowd will give the Bulldogs.
Can an intangible be more than a little thing that determines the game's outcome? If so, Georgia's extraordinary home game record and Alabama's poor road record under Kalen DeBoer should mean the Bulldogs will prevail. A counter perspective is that those points, along with Alabama's history of dominance over Georgia and Kirby Smart will not impact the game.
It is more likely that one or more 'little things' will occur enough times to determine the winner. A 'little things' list is not unique to Saturday night. Attention to detail and execution of those details are always hinge points between evenly matched teams. As important as the hinge points are, predicting which ones will decide the outcome of a game is nearly impossible.
Alabama Football 'Little Things'
From the premise of what matters most Saturday night, being what Alabama Football does or doesn't do, let's consider little things based mostly on Alabama's 2025 performance. Bear in mind that a three-game sample of stats will always be sketchy.
- Turnover Margin - Alabama Football is tied at No. 1 among all FBS teams with a plus-2 turnover margin. Ty Simpson's zero-turnover performance has boosted the Crimson Tide's turnover success. Georgia is ranked at No. 89, with a score of -0.33.
- Missed Tackles - Alabama has had a missed tackles problem from last season that was evident again against Florida State. There is no need for stats to confirm the reality that Georgia is the better tackling team.
- Penalties - The Bulldogs are one of the best FBS in penalties, ranked No. 5 at 3.3 per game. Alabama has a penalty problem, ranked No. 83, with 6.7 penalties per game. False starts by Alabama offensive linemen will be a major risk in the loud and hostile Sanford Stadium environment.
- Field Goal Kicking - Georgia's Peyton Woodring has made 46 of 52 field goal attempts in his two-plus seasons at Georgia. Conor Talty's career stat is three field goals made in four attempts. Talty could kick a game-winner against the Bulldogs. He is also the game's more likely kicker to miss one.
- Surprise Plays - Having written before that blocking and tackling will determine the game's result rather than scheme, I'll regress by suggesting the Alabama football staff is more likely to find the Bulldogs unsuspecting than the other way around. Georgia's comfort zone is a war of attrition, not razzle-dazzle.
Note: Team stats provided by cfbstats.com and player stats provided by Sports Reference