The national reputation of the Iron Bowl is perhaps most fed by Alabama Crimson Tide losses. Except for Alabama and Auburn fans, there is probably little recall of the games from seasons before 2010. Thanks to mostly national media, the 2013 game will be imprinted in the minds of many college football fans for decades more.
It is accurate that the series has had many dramatic outcomes. The 2013 'Kick-Six' game is the most well-known, but the 2023 'Gravedigger' Alabama Crimson Tide win comes close. Going back to the early Paul 'Bear' Bryant seasons, nine Iron Bowls have been decided by two points or less. The Auburn Tigers won five of those close games.
The last Legion Field Iron Bowl was in 1992. Auburn played its first home game in the series in 1989. The Tigers have won 58.8% of the games in Jordan-Hare. Alabama has won 61.1% of the games in Tuscaloosa.
The percentages suggest that while home stadiums can be a factor in games, winning on the road is not uncommon. One historical fact is common. In fact, it is an Iron Bowl 'near constant.'
Saturday night will be the 90th Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Auburn Tigers game. It is not the 90th Iron Bowl because that moniker was not assigned until the Bryant Era. Alabama leads the series 51-37-1. In the 89 games, Alabama has been ranked and Auburn unranked 30 times. The record in those games is 29 wins for the Crimson Tide and one for the Tigers.
The mathematically small sample suggests a near-constant. As an unranked team, the Auburn Tigers have only a small probability of an upset on Saturday night. Based on performance this season, ESPN Analytics gives Auburn a 26.5% probability of winning.
Alabama Crimson Tide and Iron Bowl Outcome
Will the 'near-constant' record or any of the rivalry's history affect the outcome of Saturday night's game? It will not. It will not impact the players or the football staff of either team. Belief can determine the outcome of games. For some participants, a portion of belief, or the lack thereof, can be tied to recent history. But the Alabama Crimson Tide will not win on Saturday due to history. Alabama will win because it is the better team.
Note: Historical data provided by Sports Reference and mcubed.net