It is sweet irony that the Alabama Crimson Tide will be heavily favored to beat a Power Four team with Gus Malzahn as the opposing Offensive Coordinator. Malzahn was once known for offensive wizardry, but those days are long past. His head coaching wins record is a pedestrian 62.9% over 13 seasons, including just 66% in eight seasons at Auburn.
Malzahn is known for gimmicks, but his best skill was stressing defenses with a hurry-up tempo. A rules change that gave defenses time to substitute and a concentration on penalizing an old rule on offensive linemen downfield on passing plays severely curtailed his offensive acumen.
Malzahn's last two UCF teams went 6-7 and 4-8. When Mike Norvell hired him, he was about to get the axe in Orlando. It was a desperation move, but that was exactly FSU's situation after the embarrassment of a 2-10 season.
Of course, Florida State will be better in 2025. They could be much better and still not be very good. College football offseasons are filled with fan optimism, but FSU fans do not dare to expect too much. Some pundits are ginning up enthusiasm for the Noles. CBS Sports' Will Backus opined that Norvell's time working with Malzahn at Tulsa in 2007 and 2008 portends 2025 offensive success. The gaudy stats for Tulsa's offense come from a different era of college football.
FSU has a better reason for optimism than Malzahn. It is adding Herb Hand as offensive line coach. On a team that was bad across the board in 2024, FSU's worst position group was the offensive line. Hand left UCF with Malzahn, and the respected assistant is the key to FSU's offensive improvement. FSU fans believe the quartet of transfer offensive linemen will give Hand the tools he needs. They could be right, but before the 2024 season, Phil Steele touted the '24 Noles' O-line as top-five in college football. That Steele is a legit expert proves how tricky predictions of position groups are.
Alabama Crimson Tide Defense will stuff Malzahn and FSU
Malzahn's offensive success is predicated on running the football. FSU has a competent rusher in transfer QB Thomas Castellanos. His passing accuracy is in question, at only 58.7% in his two seasons at Boston College. That stat should improve if all FSU's receivers are fully healthy by late August. Still, Kane Wommack and the Alabama Crimson Tide defenders must be licking their chops to tear into the FSU offense. One early prediction is the Crimson Tide winning by more than two touchdowns. At least a three-touchdown margin feels more probable.