The USA Today, Georgia sports site, UGA Wire, doesn't believe the Bulldogs will beat Alabama Football in Athens. The pick is not as shocking as it might first seem. According to FanDuel, the Bulldogs are less than a touchdown favorite at 4.5 points. ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) ranks the Bulldogs as the No. 2 team in the nation. The 2025 Alabama Crimson Tide is ranked No. 3.
Based on one measurement, Alabama has the SEC's most game-changing players. More important than a team's total number of former 5-stars on its roster is the count of former Top 100 recruits. Teams with a high number of game-changing talent (high school signees and transfers) have an advantage over teams dependent upon high achievement by formerly lesser-rated recruits.
Alabama Football leads in elite talent
As calculated by On3 (Rivals), the Alabama Crimson Tide has 33 "former elite recruits" on its 2025 roster. The Georgia Bulldogs are close behind with 30. Texas rounds out the SEC's top three with 27 former elite recruits. The rest of the SEC lags behind, with Texas A&M's count of 17, followed by LSU with 15, both Auburn and Florida with 13, and Tennessee and Oklahoma with 12. The seven SEC 'talent-laggards' are South Carolina (9), Ole Miss (7), Missouri (6), Arkansas (5), Mississippi State (4), Vanderbilt (2), and the Kentucky Wildcats with only one. The one for Mark Stoops is former Alabama player Kendrick Law.
Of course, talent alone is not enough. Coaching talent and player development are also essential, though with the Transfer Portal, much player development is compressed into months rather than years.
Does Georgia have a coaching staff advantage over the Alabama Crimson Tide? Kirby Smart is consistently ranked as the best or close to the best college football head coach. But as Georgia fans painfully remember, Smart's record against Alabama is a woeful 1-6. The Bulldogs have a 31-game home winning streak that will reach 33 before Alabama arrives in Athens. In stark contrast to such success, the Bulldogs have lost nine of their last 10 games against Alabama. Only two of those games were in Athens, but three more were in Atlanta.
The Sept. 27 game will likely be a toss-up contest between two evenly matched teams. One in which the luck of one team (or bizarre officiating) determines the outcome. If Alabama wins, the game should not be considered an upset.