In 2024, Alabama suffered its third loss of the season to Oklahoma, and it kept the 9-3 Crimson Tide out of the College Football Playoff. One year into the 12-team CFP format, a three-loss team has never made the field, but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen this time around, especially if that third loss comes in the conference championship game.
The new CFP format has introduced some uncertainty about the future of conference championship games, because for teams on the bubble that make it, there’s the risk that an additional loss in that game, which other bubble teams **cough cough Notre Dame** don’t have to play,
Now that Alabama took its second loss of the year, once again falling to Oklahoma, and fell to No. 10 in Tuesday night’s rankings, that potential doomsday scenario looks like a stark reality for the Crimson Tide. With just one SEC loss heading into the final two weeks, Alabama controls its own destiny to get to the SEC Championship Game to meet either Texas A&M or Georgia.
The CFP committee won’t crush Alabama for an SEC title game loss
So, if Alabama gets to Atlanta, then falls to 10-3, will the Crimson Tide get left out of the 12-team field? ESPN’s Greg McElroy says no.
“If you make your conference championship game,” McElroy said after the rankings reveal. “Let’s use Alabama, for example, Alabama beats Auburn, punches their ticket to the SEC (championship game). They can only strengthen their resume, I think, on conference championship Saturday. They can’t be penalized for having to play against a team,” McElory said.
Rece Davis and Joey Galloway, on the desk with McElory at Madison Square Garden in between the Champions Classic, added an important caveat, “if you get blown out.” And that’s fair to recognize, but the CFP committee will want to be careful with penalizing bubble teams that play in the conference title games.
With the SEC and ACC going to nine-game conference schedules and the added length of the 12-team CFP, there has already been growing pushback against the conference championship games. However, conferences greatly enjoy the significant payday they get for hosting them, and won’t want them to go away.
That tension will, and already has, made the CFP committee tread lightly with conference championship game losers. Just last season, Alabama was on the wrong side of that reality, with SMU getting an at-large bid into the field after losing the ACC Championship Game to Clemson.
It’s not a rule, as Davis pointed out, that the committee won’t punish teams for losing on championship Saturday. However, it wouldn’t make much sense for a Notre Dame, Oklahoma, or Miami to jump Alabama.
Doomsday could still come for the Crimson Tide
There is still one small doomsday scenario that seems possible, and it involves two teams that will likely also be playing on championship Saturday: No. 5 Texas Tech and No. 11 BYU. If BYU beats Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game, avenging its only loss of the season, the Cougars will obviously be in the field as a conference champion. Then, three-loss Alabama might lose the argument to two-loss Texas Tech.
That scenario was only made possible by the CFP committee dropping Alabama to 10 this week, behind both Oklahoma (understandably), and Notre Dame (nonsensically).