Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology for ESPN lists Auburn as the “first team out” of the 68-team NCAA Tournament field. That’s, no doubt, a thing of beauty to Alabama fans who would love to see the Tigers left out of the big dance in Steven Pearl’s first season taking over for his father, Bruce.
However, there’s at least one round of Iron Bowl basketball left this season, and the matchup on Sunday in Tuscaloosa could be exactly what Auburn needs to get off the bubble and lock in an at-large bid for March Madness.
Georgia ended Alabama’s eight-game win-streak on Tuesday night. Auburn looks like the perfect team to replicate that blueprint and send the Crimson Tide into the postseason riding a two-game skid. More consequentially, though, an upset win for the Tigers would be just the statement they need to make to the committee eight days before Selection Sunday.
Auburn can expose the same Alabama weakness that Georgia and Tennessee revealed
There is more than 1 reason that Georgia upset Alabama in Athens on Tuesday night. The Tide settled for too many threes, had too many turnovers, and didn’t get much production from the bench, but the biggest reason was Georgia’s dominance on the offensive boards.
Alabama allowed 13 offensive rebounds, which came out to a 40 percent offensive rebound rate for the Bulldogs, up five percent from their season average. But it’s not just that they grabbed so many offensive boards; it’s what Georgia did with them.
The Bulldogs converted those 13 extra possessions into 25 second-chance points, equalling Saturday’s win over Tennessee for the second-most Alabama has allowed this year. It’s not like Alabama can’t win that way. In fact, the Tide are 4-2 when allowing 20 or more second-chance points this season. However, it makes things considerably more difficult and demands a better offensive outing than the one Nate Oats’s team put forth.
Auburn is a similar team to Georiga in so far as they’ve both spent much of the year hovering around the bubble, and neither should be able to knock off Alabama if the Tide are playing their best. They’re both, however, difficult matchups for Alabama because of their offensive rebounding prowess.
In the first edition of Iron Bowl basketball this season, Alabama escaped The Plains with a 96-92 win, and, with Charles Bediako in tow, held Auburn to 13 second-chance points off 14 offensive rebounds. For the season, the Tigers average 14.1 second-chance points per game, which is 95th percentile nationally (per CBBanalytics.com), and have a 98th percentile 38.3 percent offensive rebound rate.
With Bediako there to aid Aiden Sherell in rim protection, Auburn shot 58.1 percent at the rim and only 60 percent on putbacks. Without Bediako on Tuesday, Georgia shot 68.2 percent at the rim and 100 percent on putbacks.
That 100 percent may not be easy to replicate, but Auburn didn’t need that to be perfect to close the four-point gap in the last meeting. Whatever marginal improvement the Tigers make, Alabama will need to offset on the offensive end because it’s clear the Tide don’t have any answers on the boards or at the rim.
With a win, the Tide can, barring a miracle run in the SEC Tournament, burst Auburn’s bubble, but with Auburn’s play-style, that win will be difficult to come by on Saturday.