Preseason predictive rankings are flawed until data from current-season games are added. ESPN's preseason Football Power Index (FPI) is often derided for being a curse on the FPI's preseason-ranked No. 1 team. For the 2026 season, that team is Ohio State with a 17.1% probability of winning the national title game.
Alabama is tied for No. 8 and third among SEC teams with a 3.7% probability of winning it all. Texas is the top SEC team at 13.2% probability, and Georgia is next at 9%.
The 2025 preseason FPI was embarrassingly wrong when it gave Indiana a 0.9% probability of winning the national championship. Alabama was given the fourth-highest, a10.4% probability. In fairness to ESPN, the algorithm does have a history of 'relative' preseason accuracy. In the 2020-2025 seasons, every National Champion was within ESPN's top six in probability to win the title. Alabama had the third-highest probability in 2020. Georgia had the same in 2022. Michigan was sixth in 2023, Georgia fifth in 2021, and Ohio State fourth in 2024.
Perspective the FPI provides about strength of Power Four conferences
In the 2026 preseason FPI, 27 Power Four teams are given a zero percentage probability of winning the National Championship. Nine of them are ACC teams; eight are in the Big Ten; and seven are Big 12 teams. There are only three SEC teams: Arkansas, Kentucky, and Mississippi State.
Expand the breakdown to teams with a 0.8% probability or less; the ACC has 16 teams, the Big 12 has 15 teams, and the Big Ten has 12 teams. The SEC list expands to eight teams, including Florida, Missouri, Auburn, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt.
Reports continue that the SEC is not bluffing about possibly moving to self-governance and playing a 10-game (or more) SEC schedule. Few fans believe it will happen, but a reason why it could is the strength of so many SEC brands. Last season, the top 25 most-watched games included 14 games with one or more SEC teams. Ten regular season games had more than 10 million viewers. Eight of the games had an SEC team. An SEC-only regular season, plus a 16-team or 8-team SEC-only playoff, could garner huge dollars in media rights.
The Big Ten can rightly boast about its three straight National Championships, but the King of college football fan interest is the SEC. And last season, the college football team most chosen for broadcast was the Alabama Crimson Tide.
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