On paper, Alabama basketball was projected to be one of the best three-point shooting teams in college basketball in 2024-25. That thought was a big reason the Crimson Tide was among the preseason favorites to win the national title.
Mark Sears, Latrell Wrightsell, Chris Youngblood, and Houston Mallette all shot over 40% from three last season. Add in guys with big-time shooting potential like Aden Holloway to go along with solid stretch-bigs like Jarin Stevenson and Grant Nelson, it made sense why most were bullish about Alabama's ability to shoot.
So far this season, it has been a struggle from distance. Alabama is shooting 31.8% from three, which ranks 233rd in the country. Wrightsell was shooting 42% from deep before his season-ending injury, but no other player is above 35% so far this year.
(Mallette is technically at 100%, but it's only on two attempts so not a big enough sample size to matter yet.)
Mark Sears hit 4-of-7 in Saturday night's win over Creighton but is shooting just below 32% for the year, which would be his worst shooting percentage since his freshman season at Ohio.
Chris Youngblood just made his Alabama debut, so hopefully he can provide a spark. Aside from Sears, the only other active players even above 30% from three this season are Holloway, Mo Dioubate, and Derrion Reid.
Stevenson, Nelson, and freshman guard Labaron Philon are all at 27% and below on multiple attempts per game.
The good news for Alabama is that they are 8-2 regardless of the poor shooting percentage from deep. They ranked No. 6 in the country in offensive efficiency, per KenPom, a remarkable number despite ranking 233rd in three-point percentage.
Contrary to the popular sentiment, Alabama does not live by the three and die by the three. The Tide can, and frequently have, win games with poor shooting. Saturday night's win over Creighton is a good example - Alabama beat a quality opponent despite shooting 20% from downtown.
The key going forward, if Alabama can't shoot better, is to be an elite defensive team. That can carry this team far in spite of the shooting struggles.
Last year, Alabama was 19th in the country in three-point shooting percentage, and made a run to the Final Four fueled by its offensive ability while ranking sub-100 per KenPom in defensive efficiency.
The year before, when Alabama had Brandon Miller and won the SEC regular season and tournament and entered the NCAA Tournament as the No. 1 overall seed for the first time in school history, that team got to where it did because of its ability on the defensive end.
Sure, there was plenty of offensive firepower with Miller and company, but that team ranked 198th in the country in three-point percentage and was only 20th in offensive efficiency. They ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency, however. The shooting struggles did eventually catch up to them in a Sweet 16 loss to San Diego State.
Two years before that, Alabama won the SEC double once again thanks to its defensive ability. Like the Miller-led team, Herb Jones and company ranked No. 3 in defensive efficiency. They were only 30th in offensive efficiency and ranked 102nd in the nation in three-point percentage.
So there are two ways for Alabama to be one of the best teams in the country. They can either be an efficient three-point shooting team, or they can be one of the nation's best defensive teams. If it can take a step on defense to go along with maintaining its offensive efficiency with a shooting uptick, then this team will be a legitimate threat to win the whole thing.
Alabama's defense started off slow this season, but they're up to 35th in defensive efficiency. They've played their two best defensive games of the season in back-to-back wins over North Carolina and Creighton.
If that trend continues, then the three-point shooting won't matter as much. Any regression defensively will mean Alabama has to improve its shooting to be a great team.
Nate Oats is a math guy. He knows shooting variables are unreliable. When everything is going wrong, the only thing you can rely on is defense and effort. Those two things will be the determining factor in how far this team goes.