Respected computer models project an Alabama Crimson Tide win over Texas A&M by an average margin of six points. The models include data from the full season. As such, they may not indicate the current strengths and weaknesses of two teams.
In Alabama's most recent seven games, the Crimson Tide has lost to Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Florida, with wins over two bad teams (Mississippi State and Oklahoma) plus a win and a loss against two NCAA Tournament Bubble teams (Missouri and Texas). Alabama is 4-4 in SEC play, and Nate Oats is concerned that Wednesday night's game could be a tipping point.
The Aggies are 7-1 in SEC play with three away game wins over Auburn, South Carolina, and Georgia. Their single loss came in Knoxville to Tennessee in double overtime.
The Alabama team that beat St. John's, Illinois, Clemson, and Kentucky would likely beat the Aggies by double-digits. But, right now, Alabama is not that team. Indications are that Bucky McMillan and the Aggies understand exactly what they are. Nate Oats and Alabama are still searching.
The comparative strength of the Aggies is reflected in the current SEC Basketball Power Ranking by Adam Spencer. Spencer has A&M No. 1, followed by Florida, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt. Spencer ranks the Alabama Crimson Tide behind Kentucky, Arkansas, and Auburn as the SEC's No. 8 team.
Two data points show why the Aggies might be a major challenge for the Crimson Tide. The Aggies are over two percentage points better than the Crimson Tide in making threes. A&M is third among SEC teams in turnover margin; Alabama is tenth.
Additionally, tempo will not give Alabama a significant advantage against the Aggies. Ken Pomeroy's adjusted tempo stat has Alabama as the SEC No. 1. The Aggies are not far behind at No. 3.
Will the Alabama Crimson Tide win?
Due to one of college basketball's weakest non-conference schedules, Texas A&M's full season stats (if not opponent adjusted) inflate the strengths of Bucky McMillan's team. Alabama, playing at home in a must-win situation, should prevail. For an early February game, the stakes could not be much higher.
Note: Team stats provided by secstats.com