Without Aden Holloway, can Alabama Basketball advance to the second week of the NCAA Tournament? There is no consensus answer. Mostly, but with some reservations, the Crimson Tide is expected to beat Hofstra. CBS Sports' Thomas Casale touts his past success in knowing which teams Alabama will struggle against. He thinks Hofstra is one of those teams, "Alabama struggles against teams that hammer them on the offensive boards." The Pride have the size to overpower the Tide on the glass so that Casale might have a valid point. He did not go so far as predicting an upset, but he did say Hofstra could make the Sweet 16.
Bart Torvik's and Evan Miyakawa's models are nearly equal in giving Alabama 85.5% and 85.9% probabilities to beat Hofstra. ESPN's BPI has an Alabama victory at 90.1%.
The bigger question is whether Alabama can beat Texas Tech or Akron in the Second Round. Chase Goodbread published predictions for the Tuscaloosa News. The local experts pick Texas Tech to knock off Alabama in the Second Round.
ESPN's BPI gives Alabama a 64.4% probability of winning the Second Round. Evan Miyakawa assigns a 64.1%. Bart Torvik's model has a much lower number; 44.5%. The BPI model did not change with the news of Aden Holloway's arrest. Miyakawa's model does factor in injuries, but may or may not have been adjusted for Holloway's suspension.
An Alabama Basketball Elite Eight?
The computer models are bearish on the Crimson Tide advancing past the Sweet 16. The least bearish projection is 19.2% by ESPN's BPI. Torvik's model has the Tide's Elite Eight probability at 12.8%; Miyakawa's model is lower at 10.4%.
The most optimism for the Crimson Tide comes from Jay Bilas. An early week prediction from Bilas had Alabama advancing past Texas Tech and playing Michigan in the Elite Eight. That prediction came before news of Holloway's arrest broke, though rumors had circulated a couple of days before. Bilas called Alabama a "dangerous team" in the Midwest Region.
A hunch (and not more than that) is that the Holloway mess will bring a tight-knit Alabama roster together even more. I expect no complacency from the Crimson Tide in the Big Dance, from Friday's opening tip and throughout the Tide's March Madness.