The Alabama Crimson Tide and the Georgia Bulldogs are nearly equal in key components. Using Brian Fremeau's FEI ratings, Georgia is No. 7 among all FBS teams in opponent-adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Alabama is No. 10 nationally for the same stat. In opponent-adjusted Defensive Efficiency, the Crimson Tide is No. 10, and the Bulldogs are No. 20.
In Joel Klatt's prediction of a 27-17 Georgia win, he cited two reasons: Ty Simpson "is no longer a world-beater" and (Alabama) "is a one-dimensional team." Alabama football fans hate Klatt's assessment, but he is correct that the Crimson Tide is forced to be one-dimensional on offense due to limited success running the ball. And he is correct that Simpson has not maintained his early-season Heisman-like pace.
When Alabama beat Georgia in September, Simpson completed 63.2% of his passes. Simpson's accuracy was a boost as the Tide converted 13 of 19 third downs in the game. Simpson may not match his earlier completion percentage in the SEC Championship Game, and Alabama is unlikely to convert 68.4% of its third downs. In SEC games, the Bulldogs have allowed 43% in opponent third-down conversions.
There are multiple reasons why Ty Simpson does not have to be a 'world-beater' for the Crimson Tide to beat the Bulldogs. The primary reason is that Kane Wommack's defense has improved significantly since September. In opponent third-down conversions, Georgia is No. 11 among SEC teams. Alabama is No. 2.
Alabama Crimson Tide with Red Zone Defense Advantage
Overall, in opponent red zone conversions, the two teams are close. The Crimson Tide is No. 3 among SEC teams in conference play. Georgia is No. 5. However, Kane Wommack's defense has been far better at limiting touchdowns in opponent red zone possessions. Alabama has allowed touchdowns on 38.46% of those possessions, tops in the SEC. Georgia is No. 10, allowing SEC opponents touchdowns 61.54% of the time.
Against the Bulldogs in September, Ty Simpson mostly worked from a clean pocket. On Saturday, a major key for Georgia will be pressuring Simpson. It is worthwhile to note that Alabama has played and beaten two SEC teams better than Georgia at quarterback sacks without blitzing: Tennessee and Missouri. Against the SEC's best at pressure without blitzing, Ty Simpson passed for 326 yards in the two-point loss to Oklahoma.
A starting safety for Georgia, Zion Branch, is listed as questionable for Saturday. To adjust for a backup in a safety role, Georgia could be forced to drop more numbers into coverage and lessen their ability to pressure Simpson.
Georgia has a far more dependable field goal kicker in Peyton Woodring than Alabama does in Conor Talty. The Crimson Tide can and should beat the Bulldogs by forcing Georgia to most often rely on its placekicking strength and settle for field goals.
My bold prediction for the SEC Championship Game is Alabama 24 - Georgia 23, with Peyton Woodring making three field goals and the Crimson Tide needing just one from Conor Talty.
Note: Team stats provided by cfbstats.com