In the NFL, demand for franchise quarterbacks always outstrips the supply. Yet, when it comes to this year’s NFL Draft, Ty Simpson could have a tough time finding a suitor in the first round.
Simpson has just one year of starting experience in college, half of it spent hampered by various injuries, and he didn’t do anything at the NFL Combine to dispel concerns about his size and durability at the next level, measuring in at 6-foot-1 and weighing just 211 pounds.
Still, many are assuming that Simpson did enough through his incredible start to the season to secure a spot in the first-round. That’s probably right, at least as things sit right now. But the legal tampering period in NFL free agency begins on Monday, and as though dominoes fall, Simpson’s market could look a lot thinner heading into the 2026 NFL Draft in Pittsburgh from April 23-25.
Ty Simpson could quickly run out of suitors, with Malik Willis and Kyler Murray taking up starting spots
There isn’t much competition for the QB2 spot behind Fernando Mendoza in this year’s draft class. Penn State’s Drew Allar seems to be a riser after an impressive display of arm talent at the Combine last week, but Allar has a long history of big-game struggles and is coming off a season-ending ankle injury that robbed him of the second-half of his senior year in Happy Valley.
However, there is still significant competition in the NFL for the available starting jobs in Arizona, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Atlanta, New York, and Miami.
There are proven veterans with limited upside, like Aaron Rodgers, who is almost certainly heading back to the Steelers, Kirk Cousins, who could be a backup at this point in his career, and Geno Smith, who will be released by the Raiders, who are drafting Fernando Mendoza at No. 1.
The real intriguing options that teams may be interested in taking a low-risk swing on, rather than sinking a first-round pick into Simpson, are former Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 pick, Kyler Murray, former Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa, whose future is uncertain after being benched by the Dolphins last season, and free agent Malik Willis.
There are only so many teams in the first round that appear to be a good fit for Simpson in Round 1, and some of them may need to trade back into the late first to nab him. One of those fits is the Arizona Cardinals, but if newly-hired head coach Mike LaFleur bets on Willis, who blossomed as a backup under the tutelage of his brother Matt in Green Bay, that’s another Simpson destination crossed off.
It’s a similar situation with Rodgers in Pittsburgh. If he does return for his age 43 season, the Steelers will be intent on winning now, so it would be hard to square that urgency with taking a first-round QB to back up Rodgers next season. Murray could easily gobble up another starting job, too.
Simpson reportedly received multiple first-round grades as he weighed his early departure vs. entering the Transfer Portal. That might still be true, but until the free agency dominoes start to fall on Monday, it’ll be hard to say whether or not that first-round prophecy will come true.