Hugh Freeze has not been fired or agreed to a buyout settlement yet. It is only a matter of time until it happens. If Auburn AD John Cohen hunkers down steadfastly and ties his future to Freeze, Cohen's job will be in jeopardy.
After losing at home to Georgia on Saturday night, Auburn is 3-3 and 0-3 in SEC play. The Hugh Freeze record at Auburn is 14-17. Freeze is 5-14 in SEC games as Auburn's coach. Worst for Freeze is his Auburn record of 1-10 against ranked teams.
In the remainder of the SEC football regular season, not enough good will happen for Auburn. According to ESPN Analytics, the Tigers are favored in only two remaining games: by 52.4% probability at Arkansas and a 76.3% probability over Kentucky in Auburn. The Tigers are a 46.4% dog at home against Missouri on Saturday. Vanderbilt at 66.3% is favored over Auburn in Nashville. The Alabama Crimson Tide is favored at 74.6% in Jordan-Hare. No matter what John Cohen wants, Auburn's power brokers are not going to accept a 3-5 SEC record in Freeze's third season. The Tigers will have an interim head coach in any bowl game.
Even if the Tigers manage to win three of the five games, the SEC record will be 3-5. That will not be enough to save Hugh's job. Freeze has already lost the support of many Auburn fans. Freeze is teetering on an edge of losing the confidence of many of his players.
According to Freeze in the preseason, he had a QB in Jackson Arnold that could (finally) succeed in Freeze's offensive system. Now Arnold is close to becoming a discard in the junk heap of Freeze's undeveloped quarterbacks. Arnold is not very good, but that is as much on Freeze as it is on the quarterback.
Auburn's defense is good enough to win many games. Hugh Freeze's speciality is offense, and his Auburn version is well short of good enough. At times, it is awful. In Saturday night's second half, the Tigers produced 40 total yards of offense.
Has Hugh Freeze lost the Auburn fan base?
Based on the trustworthy site Fly War Eagle, Auburn fans are done with Freeze. Andrew Hughes wrote that Freeze remaining the Auburn coach is an "abuse to Tiger fans." On the same site, Brian Stultz wrote that Jackson Arnold scored, but the missed call was not the main reason Auburn lost. Instead, it was "how Auburn responded" that cost the Tigers the game.
In his post-game review, Hugh Freeze accurately summarized his football team: "I think it’s very clear that we find ways to not win football games." With Freeze 31 games into his Auburn tenure, the statement was more telling about the coach than his team.