Human experts and computer models disagree on Alabama Crimson Tide Playoff chances

On one of the bleakest Sundays for the Alabama Crimson Tide in a long time, CFB Playoff chances have dimmed. Instead of wondering if Alabama can still make the Playoffs, more pressing is whether the Crimson Tide beat Missouri and LSU. Alabama's Boom or Bust offense can have the 'Boom' part of the label removed after being stuffed by the Tennessee Vols. The Crimson Tide must rally quickly or the 2024 season will include more than two losses.

After Week 8, ESPN's FPI computer algorithm continues to value the Crimson Tide, with its No. 3 ranking unchanged, despite the loss to Tennessee. Georgia's win over Texas backstopped what otherwise would have been a drop by Alabama in the FPI rankings.

ESPN's Playoff analytics tell a different story. The Crimson Tide is now given a 44.3% probability of making the Playoff field. It is the 12th-highest probability calculated by ESPN. Georgia (86.6%), Oregon (86.6%), and Miami (86%) are now the heavy computer favorites to make the Playoffs.

Between the top trio and the Crimson Tide are Ohio State (78.6%), Texas (78%), Penn State (72.7%), Tennessee (66.8%), Indiana (63.6%), Notre Dame (56.1%), Iowa State (48.7%), and Boise State (46.5%).

According to ESPN, Playoff probabilities for other SEC teams are LSU (39.7%), Texas A&M (33%), Ole Miss (22.1%), and Missouri (15.7%).

No love for the Alabama Crimson Tide

ESPN's human experts have a far different take on the Alabama Crimson Tide. Thirteen ESPN experts predicted the 12-team field after Week 8 games. Only one of the 13, Eli Lederman has Alabama in a Playoff field as an 11-seed. Lederman is also an ESPN outlier, having five SEC teams in the Playoff field. Nine of ESPN's other experts included three SEC teams; three only projected two SEC teams making the Playoffs.

The ESPN Analytics tool calculating game probabilities did not significantly downgrade Alabama's winning chances. Alabama received a slight bump to 82.3% to beat Missouri; went down from 69% to beat LSU to 61.9%; went up from 71.5% to 77.7% to beat Oklahoma, and dipped from 88.9% to 88.8% for Alabama to beat Auburn.