If Alabama Football takes two things away the Aubies are toast
By Ronald Evans
Predicting what will happen in an Iron Bowl takes some bold confidence. While the history of the Alabama Football versus Auburn rivalry is the clear favorite most often wins, more than a few games have been wildly unpredictable. Crimson Tide fans don't appear to be jumping on bets that Alabama will cover Friday's spread of 10.5 points per FanDuel.
My hunch is an Alabama Football win, but not a cover. For too many reasons to discuss, but including this week's brash talk from Auburn players; I would love a three-touchdown blowout by the Crimson Tide. While such a result is unlikely, it could happen if the Crimson Tide accomplishes two things.
Statistically Auburn has the better run defense and Alabama has the better pass defense. When measuring the two defenses based on average yards allowed, they are close to even. Alabama is No. 14 nationally at 4.76 yards and the Tigers are No. 16 at 4.78 yards. Drill down to just games against AP-ranked teams and Auburn has the edge at 5.25 yards (tied for No. 15 nationally) to Alabama at 5.48 yards (tied for No. 22 nationally). Two points to consider when comparing these stats are schedule strength (SOS) and improvement of the Alabama defense in the second half of the season.
Calculated by ESPN, Alabama has an SOS of No. 11 among all FBS teams. Auburn's SOS is No. 31. Alabama's rushing defense regressed against Oklahoma, but the Crimson Tide's pass defense has shown marked improvement going back to the Tennessee game. In Alabama's last four games (excluding the Mercer game) the Crimson Tide has allowed a pass completion rate of only 59%. Against Vanderbilt and South Carolina, Alabama allowed a combined completion rate of just under 79%. That is marked improvement.
The statistical kicker that separates Alabama and Auburn is turnover margin. The Crimson Tide is No. 7 nationally with a margin of plus-11; Auburn is No. 128 with a margin of minus-11. Auburn QB Payton Thorne has only thrown four interceptions since throwing four in Auburn's second game vs. Cal. Even so, Alabama's best approach is making Thorne beat the Alabama secondary.
Alabama Football and Two Things
Two things must happen to pressure Thorne into errors. One is to neutralize his most dangerous target; Keandre Lambert-Smith, while not letting Malcolm Simmons, Cam Coleman, and Rivaldo Fairweather pick all the slack. With effective pass pressure, Thorne will find consistent success difficult.
If only that one result of putting the Auburn game in Thorne's hands were so simple. It isn't because of Jarquez Hunter. Hunter is arguably the SEC's best running back. He leads the SEC at 6.6 yards per carry. Hunter is too good to lock down but he can be slowed enough. Missouri and Vanderbilt held him the three and 4.2 yards per carry. Alabama must have a similar result.
A closing bold prediction is the Alabama Football defense leads the way to an Iron Bowl victory.
Note: additional stats provided by Sports Reference and rolltide.com