The title to this post poses a question to which there is no clear answer. The only people who have a solid idea are members of the Playoff Selection Committee and they will keep silent.
Many Alabama football fans are encouraged by the Crimson Tide's Playoff ranking of No. 11. Some are confident Bama is in for sure, even if Clemson beats SMU in the ACC Championship Game. The confidence and exuberance are warranted, but the only lock the Crimson Tide has comes from an SMU win over Clemson.
Also based on Selection Committee Chair, Warde Manuel's comments, the Crimson Tide cannot get jumped by the teams just below it in the rankings. "Those who are not playing, we will not adjust those teams because we don’t have another data point. Any team that isn’t playing right now, we don’t have a data point. That is set upon how we see them going into the final week- champion week. The teams that are not playing cannot be adjusted in terms of where they are compared to the teams that are playing."
All those words mean Miami, Ole Miss, and South Carolina are out of Playoff contention. Manuel explained why Miami was moved below Alabama, "Alabama is 3-1 against current top-25 teams, and Miami is 0-1. Alabama is 6-1 against teams above .500, and Miami is 4-2." Finally, the Selection Committee factored in Strength of Schedule when it mattered.
The nagging question for some Alabama football fans is whether SMU, in a close loss to Clemson, would take the last at-large Playoff slot that's now slated for the Crimson Tide. The No. 11 slot is the last at-large slot because the Big 12 Champion will be No. 12. Manuel admitted Tuesday night that SMU, with a loss to Clemson, could 'potentially' drop below Alabama.
A secure Alabama Football Playoff Spot
For Alabama's Playoff spot to be secure, a Clemson win needs to be by at least a couple of touchdowns. If that happens, 10-2 SMU would have zero wins over a Top 25 team, with the losses being to (now) No. 17 Clemson and No. 18 BYU. It is possible SMU would get bumped even with a close loss - but if Clemson takes a touchdown lead in the game, Bama fans may start hoping for a Clemson blowout.