It's not playoff or bust for Kalen DeBoer in year two at Alabama in the sense that his job is on the line. Barring an absolute catastrophe, DeBoer will be the head coach of the Crimson Tide in 2026 even if they miss the College Football Playoff for a second year in a row. His buyout is too high to expect that, in an era where Alabama is already seen by some as struggling to come up with the funds to keep up in recruiting, Greg Byrne would find the money to remove his head coach. It would be damaging to the program's future ability to recruit talent if they had to re-allocate $60+ million to cover the cost of DeBoer's buyout.
So, for better or worse, DeBoer and Alabama are tied together for the foreseeable future. That's likely to work out well for the Crimson Tide. He's a good football coach, has answered questions about his ability to recruit, and it's only a matter of time before he has success in Tuscaloosa.
The problem is that patience is not a virtue Alabama football fans have. And a second consecutive missed playoff would be disastrous for his perception, and increase the pressure on DeBoer heading into 2026 and Byrne to make a move quickly. Especially with the rumors of Nick Saban's interest in a return to coaching.
Popular college football analyst Josh Pate released his Alabama preview on Monday morning. In it, he used his analytical model to spit out results of best-case, worst-case, and the most likely regular season record for the Crimson Tide.
Josh Pate's model predicts Alabama's most likely record to be 9-3...again
Pate's model broke down that Alabama's best-case scenario would be an 11-1 finish, which feels fair. As he says it, 11-1 is the new 12-0. In this era of college football, fans have to adjust their expectations and realize that it will be exceedingly rare for a team to go through a season undefeated, particularly in the SEC.
11-1 would be an exceptional season, likely put Alabama in Atlanta for the SEC Championship, and guarantee a spot in the College Football Playoff regardless. It would be proof of concept for DeBoer, and Tide fans would be completely bought into him and the future of the program, regardless of what happened in the playoff.
Pate's worst-case scenario for Alabama would be the catastrophic scenario I mentioned above. A 6-6 record, which would probably lead to massive flips from the Tide's Top 5 recruiting class, and ultimately force Byrne's hand to raise the necessary money to wash his hands of DeBoer after just two seasons.
A lot would have to go wrong for the worst-case to be a reality: Ty Simpson would have to be a disaster, injuries would have to pile up all over, and perhaps even further bad luck. This team is too talented for that to be any kind of realistic scenario.
Pate's model gives the most likely scenario of Alabama going 9-3, which would be a repeat of last season's regular season finish. That would, once again, put the Crimson Tide on the College Football Playoff bubble.
It's not hard to see, even through my crimson colored goggles, how a 9-3 campaign could happen. Alabama has an extremely difficult schedule that includes road games at Georgia, South Carolina, and Auburn. They also have to face off with LSU, Tennessee, and Oklahoma at home. They play 10 power-four opponents this year, with two out-of-conference power-four games at Florida State and at home vs. Wisconsin.
It's why DeBoer and his staff have been so intently focused on the little things this offseason. Because it's the little things that can make the difference between 9-3 and the playoff bubble or 10-2/11-1 and zero anxiety on Selection Sunday.
A 9-3 season wouldn't end the DeBoer tenure in Tuscaloosa, but it would reinvigorate the negativity from fans and be damaging to Alabama's perception as an elite program.