In a game that is almost impossible to predict, the outcome of certain 'ifs' can determine the winner of the Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oklahoma. Another way of presenting 'ifs' is to say, provided that certain things go Alabama's way, the Crimson Tide will advance to the Rose Bowl.
With one exception, the 'ifs' listed below are focused on what Alabama must do to win. All of them don't have to go the Tide's way. A majority favorable to the Crimson Tide should be enough.
Alabama Crimson Tide Win 'Ifs'
- If Jam Miller and Josh Cuevas are close enough to full health to be effective. Alabama needs Miller to provide some rushing yards, but more importantly, Jam is the Crimson Tide running back who is most dependable in pass protection. Cuevas is the Crimson Tide's fourth leading receiver, despite playing in only 10 games. He has 30 receptions, and his contribution was significant against the Sooners with six catches for 80 yards. He is also the Tide's best blocking tight end.
- If Alabama can win a turnover battle. Based on full-season stats, the Crimson Tide is the better team in turnover margin. Alabama is No. 25 nationally, compared to the Sooners at No. 83. In SEC games only, the two teams are nearly equal. Alabama is No. 47 at plus-0.22. Oklahoma is No. 50, at plus-0.13. Against AP-ranked teams, the Crimson Tide and the Sooners are tied at No. 49, minus-0.20. Alabama might not have to win a turnover battle Friday night, but it cannot afford to lose one.
- If the Crimson Tide can prevent Isaiah Sategna from making game-changing plays. The Sooners have three quality receivers in Sategna, Deon Burks, and tight end Jaren Kanak. In Tuscaloosa, Sategna had only four receptions for 26 yards, but he had one run for 21 yards and a 42-yard punt return. Oklahoma's 'just average' offense needs big plays from Sategna.
- If Alabama can prevent R Malcom Thomas from frequently pressuring Ty Simpson. Thomas is Oklahoma's sack leader despite playing in just seven games. Thomas has not played in seven weeks. He has practiced this week, but he may not be 100%.
Oklahoma Sooner Win 'If'
- Oklahoma is expecting a return from illness by center Jake Maikkula. If he is near 100%, his value to the Sooners' offense could be significant.
My guess is a low scoring game favors Oklahoma more than Alabama, because of the Sooners' field goal kicking advantage. Even so, my guess is that Alabama will prevail 17-16.
Note: Team stats provided by cfbstats.com and player stats provided by Sports Reference