Last February in Columbia, Alabama Basketball scored 98 points and lost. The Missouri Tigers scored 110 points in 40 minutes of play. It was one of the poorest defensive performances for a Crimson Tide team coached by Nate Oats.
Missouri shot 60% in the game, with 6'9" forward Mark Mitchell pouring in 31 points. Off the Missouri bench, Caleb Grill added 25 points. This season, Grill is gone, and Missouri's top scorers are Mark Mitchell and 6'4" guard Jayden Stone. Mitchell is No. 7 among all SEC scorers at 17.7 points per game.
Mitchell has the game to play at the '4' position and drive from the outside. The Tigers have a bigger body at the '5', in 7', 245lbs, Shawn Phillips. Nate Oats stated that Aiden Sherrell will primarily guard Mitchell. That would require Charles Bediako to be on the floor with Sherrell to match up against Phillips. Foul trouble for either of the Crimson Tide's bigs could cause serious defensive problems.
Good news for the Crimson Tide is that Missouri is one of the weakest SEC teams defensively. That explains why ESPN Analytics gives Alabama an 80.2% probability of winning. From this season's body of work, the Tigers are not a strong offensive team, but not much worse than the Tennessee Vols. Ken Pomeroy gives the Vols an offensive efficiency ranking of No. 44 and Missouri, No. 54. Very much like what happened with Alabama being incapable of guarding Tennessee's Nate Ament, Alabama cannot allow Mark Mitchell to pour in points.
The Tigers are not a good defensive team. The Crimson Tide may overwhelm the Tigers with an offensive barrage. If so, Alabama could win by double-digit points, no matter how many points Mark Mitchell scores.
Alabama Basketball and no Amari Allen
While Aden Holloway is expected to play, Amari Allen may not. Getting Allen more healthy for Sunday's game against Florida should be more important than using him against the Tigers.
Note: Player stats provided by ESPN