Running the table has quickly become an unrealistic goal for college football teams. Alabama Football had its last undefeated season in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. In the CFB Playoff Era, only five of the 11 National Champions have been undefeated teams. Ohio State won the top prize last season with two losses.
USA Today's Matt Hayes recently wrote: "The unbeaten season, the Holy Grail of college football championship royalty, is on the verge of extinction... Parity through an expanded College Football Playoff, free-flowing NIL dollars and rampant player movement (and off-field distractions) will quickly put an end to this once attainable goal."
Theoretically, undefeated seasons will remain attainable. Realistically, they will be improbable. According to ESPN Analytics, the Miami Hurricanes have the best chance this season. As calculated by ESPN, the Canes have the No. 61 remaining Strength of Schedule among FBA teams. That is a significant reason why ESPN's algorithm gives Miami college football's best chance of an undefeated season, with a probability of 12.3%.
The highest probability for an SEC football team to be undefeated is Georgia at 4.4%. Keep in mind that ESPN's 'Win Out' calculations do not include games past the regular season.
Matt Hayes dramatically describes the vanishing breed of undefeated National Champions: "There were 12 unbeaten national champions in the first 25 years of the 2000s. There may not be 12 in the next 75 years."
Hayes boldly predicts when the 39 currently undefeated teams will lose their first game. He has 11 of them losing in Week 4. His Week 4 losers are Rutgers, North Texas, Maryland, Memphis, BYU, Michigan State, Auburn, Tulane, Indiana, Nebraska, and Utah. His prediction that East Carolina will beat BYU is too bold for my agreement. Any or all of the other 10 losers are probable.
Alabama Football Ending Georgia Undefeated Season?
Alabama football fans diving deeply into Hayes' predictions will be disappointed. Hayes predicts Georgia will not have an undefeated regular season. But, he does not have the Alabama Crimson Tide winning over the Dawgs. Instead, Hayes has Florida beating the Bulldogs later in the season.