Interesting analysis of why Alabama Football would be a dangerous Playoff underdog

There are some solid reasons why higher-ranked championship contenders should be wary of drawing Alabama Football in the CFB Playoffs. One reason is weather. Yes; the right southern team can go north, play in freezing (or worse) weather, and prevail. It must be a team with a strong defense. In October Alabama Football allowed an average of 22.3 points per game. That stat dropped to 14.5 points in November, good for No. 8 nationally. For the season, Alabama is 11th nationally at 17.3 points. That result is not close to the 2017 Alabama team that led the nation in scoring defense at 11.9 points. It is better than all other Alabama Crimson Tide defenses since 2017.

In bad, cold weather conditions, the team with the best defense has an advantage. It can be a road team equalizer. It is especially true when the opponent has an offense not suited to grind it out football.

So, bring on a snowy South Bend or a snowy State College, or a snowy Columbus. Alabama just needs extra time up north, allowing for early practice sessions in the cold.

Moving past the weather supposition, an interesting speculation was offered by The Athletic, written by Peter Keating and Jordan Brenner. They contend some underdog teams have better chances for a Playoff upset than expected. Their premise is a team, whose record has been diminished by close losses is an unlucky team and likely undervalued in odds predictions. Five potential Playoff teams were identified as "plucky" teams who could pull off Playoff upsets.

'Plucky' used to describe the Alabama Crimson Tide will raise an eyebrow or two. Alabama Football and the word plucky feel incongruent with college football's all-time greatest program. On second thought, it also feels somewhat like humorous irony.

Funny or not, The Athletic authors point out Alabama Football is No. 105 among FBS teams in 'luck rankings'. "The Crimson Tide have been unfortunate, winning six games by more than three touchdowns apiece while losing two by a touchdown or fewer." The assumption is at some point, luck evens out. "Luck tends to regress to the mean over time."

Alabama Football an Upset Monster

Considering which teams among all Playoff contenders have the best chance of a "major" Playoff upset, The Athletic picked Alabama and Ole Miss as the top two. With the Rebels having no opportunity to move up into the field, the Alabama Crimson Tide (if selected) might be the team every favorite should most fear.

Note: Team stats provided by cfbstats.com