According to FanDuel, Arch Manning is the preseason favorite to win the Heisman. All the top favorites are quarterbacks. The expected Alabama Football starter, Ty Simpson has the sixth-best odds to win the Heisman. Many rankings include Simpson in the top 15 to top 25 range of college football's best QBs. Based on his limited game experience, those rankings could be considered generous. Phil Steele was not being unfair when he ranked the Crimson Tide's quarterback position group at No. 33 in the FBS.
In his three-season college career, Simpson has thrown only 50 passes. The sample is too small to name any QB a Heisman contender. The situation is pretty much the same for Arch Manning. Manning has 100 career passes with 95 of them coming last season. The stats that supposedly prove Arch is a legit Heisman contender come from two games last season. Against ULM and Mississippi State, Manning threw 60 passes and completed 41, for 68.3%. In limited action, he also had good accuracy in two other games against UTSA and Colorado State.
Like Simpson, the sample is small for Manning. Plus, the Warhawks and the Bulldogs were ineffective against the pass. In Passing Defense Rating, Mississippi State was last in the SEC. ULM was only above average nationally at No. 54. For added perspective, Manning earned a 193.2 Passer Rating against the Bulldogs. Toledo quarterback Tucker Gleason was 23-of-28 against Mississippi State for a 203 rating. For the same stat, Gleason was No. 54 in the FBS last season at 138.2.
Comparing Alabama Football and Texas Potential
The point is Manning is more proven than Simpson but not by a wide margin. Has Arch been over-hyped by the media because of his last name? Steve Sarkisian's coaching is a plus for Manning. Alabama has an offensive brain trust as well. Texas has good receivers, but the Crimson Tide's are likely better. The Alabama offensive line is rated highly and the Texas OL unit is somewhat suspect.
It is possible Arch Manning will lead the Horns to a National Championship and win the Heisman, followed by a long NFL career during which he wins multiple Super Bowls. It is also possible that Ty Simpson is just as good, and maybe better in the 2025 season.
Note: Player and team stats provided by cfbstats.com and Sports Reference